Optimal Strategy

PlayHunter

PlayHunter

Active Member
Lat hand, Min/Max bet 100/500 , no surrender.

BR1 1351 chips and BR2 1000. BR1 first to act, bet 325 and BR2 bet 500.

BR1 got hard 15, BR2 hard 14 and dealer up card 3. BR1 doubled. - Was that correct ?

PS: I will want to come with more scenarios of this kind for this thread as I think these type of situations happens frequently..
 
good double

If BR1 stands then BR2's optimal play is to double and we can look it up at the table for chances of winning doubled stiff hands. Depending on the particular cards it is around 30%.

If BR1 doubles we need to know if the rules of play show the doubled card.
If BR2 knows that BR1 busted than he need to stand hoping for the dealer to bust – 37.4%, If BR1 doesn’t bust then his doubled win covers BR2’s winning double, so the best play for BR2 is to hit to at least 18 and one point more than BR1’s total.
If the doubled card (even if it is a bust) is not shown then standing will be successful 20.1% of the times (both, BR1 and the dealer have to bust), and doubling increases it to 23.3%. This estimation can be done at the table within one-minute time, remembering just a very few stats.

Getting the numbers for hitting to the right total is more elaborate, it should be just a little better than doubling. Can’t do it without considerable amount of calculations, but I will see if I can get some shortcuts for estimating it, next week.

In either case doubling by BR1 was the right play.

S. Yama
 
Thank you Mr. Yama ! So BR1 had to double regardless whether the doubling card was face up or face down, and BR2 had to double on his turn too if the doubling card is dealt face down, or play optimal strategy when and if he knows BR1 total after the double. (The double down card was dealt face up to the players.)
 
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Almost same scenario, Lat hand, Min/Max bet 100/500 , no surrender, doubling down card dealt face up.

Version A: BR1 1351 chips and BR2 1000. BR1 first to act, bet 325 and BR2 bet 500.

BR1 got hard 17, BR2 hard 12 and dealer up card 6. - Does BR1 still have a double here ? (my guess is still double) - But if BR2 gets hard 16 instead of hard 12 ?

And Version B: Same as version A, but the only difference is that the dealer shows a 2 up card instead of 6. - Are there any changes when BR1 should double ?
 
standing better than doubling if double card known

I was not clear in my post. It is a good play to double by BR1 if the card is not revealed.
I am travelling, so can’t do the exact numbers but using some “rules” it can be estimated like this:
When you see the card, BR2 gains close to 20% (“Rule 10-3-1”) just from standing when the dealer and BR1 bust. Additionally, he has somewhat more than half of 20% from gain/swing both double stiffs (“Rule of 20%”), That brings it to about 32%. And this can be improved by hitting more than one card to a total greater than BR1 score, which gains another percent or so.
The total BR2 chances when played correctly and BR1 doubled would be approximately 33%, versus about 30% chance when BR1 stood, making it a slightly worse play for BR1.
This is a quick estimation, errors possible, lol.
Be back next week.

S. Yama
 
PlayHunter said:
Almost same scenario, Lat hand, Min/Max bet 100/500 , no surrender, doubling down card dealt face up.

Version A: BR1 1351 chips and BR2 1000. BR1 first to act, bet 325 and BR2 bet 500.

BR1 got hard 17, BR2 hard 12 and dealer up card 6. - Does BR1 still have a double here ? (my guess is still double) - But if BR2 gets hard 16 instead of hard 12 ?

And Version B: Same as version A, but the only difference is that the dealer shows a 2 up card instead of 6. - Are there any changes when BR1 should double ?
Click to expand...
When BR2 has hard 12, BR1 should double vs the dealer's 2 through 9 and stand vs the dealer's 10 and ace.

When BR2 has hard 16, BR1 should double vs the dealer's 7 through 10 and stand otherwise. The difference between doubling and standing vs the dealer's 10 is less than 1/1000 of a percent.
 
gronbog said:
When BR2 has hard 12, BR1 should double vs the dealer's 2 through 9 and stand vs the dealer's 10 and ace.

When BR2 has hard 16, BR1 should double vs the dealer's 7 through 10 and stand otherwise. The difference between doubling and standing vs the dealer's 10 is less than 1/1000 of a percent.
Click to expand...

So BR1 should stand on his hard 17 when BR2 has hard 16 and double when BR2 has hard 12. - But I am trying to find the doubling down break point, for BR1 hard 17 when BR2 has a stiff. So I think it may be better to ask like: - From what BR2 hard stiff total is better for BR1 to stand on his hard 17 when dealer up card is in the range of 2 through 6 ? - If this can be (quickly/easy) calculated, then I would have the exact same question, but for when BR1 has hard 16 instead hard 17.
 
First, to complete the scenarios when BR1 has hard 17:

When BR2 has hard 13, BR1 should stand vs the dealer's ace, double otherwise
When BR2 has hard 14, same as hard 13
When BR2 has hard 15, BR1 should stand vs the dealer's 4, 5, 6 and ace, double otherwise

When BR1 has hard 16:

When BR2 has hard 12, BR1 should stand vs the dealer's ace, double otherwise
When BR2 has hard 13, BR1 same as hard 12
When BR2 has hard 14, BR1 same as hard 12
When BR2 has hard 15, BR1 same as hard 12
When BR2 has hard 16, BR1 should stand vs the dealer's 2-6, double otherwise
 
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