Play This Hand

[Joep]

1 Advances out of 3........ Last Hand

Br 1 and Br 2 are tied with 670
Br 3 has 330

Br 1 bets first and bets 10
Br 1a whom is tied with Br 1 bets 10 also
Br 3 bets 330

Surrender is available max bet is 500

Br 1 has A-6 and stands
Br 1a has 16
Br 3 has A-7

Dealer has a 10 up

What should Br 2 do with his hard 16 vs dealers 10 up and why ?

If you would like to save your answer for the radio show I will ask in on the air.If not you can respond here.Let me know ? Either way is fine

 

[ssho88]

Br 1a should surrender....

if Br 1a(assumed Br 1a = Br 2) surrender, he will be the winner 77%(dealer will get total >= 17 of the time with 10 upcard) of the time whereby Br 1 only got 23%(dealer will bust 23% of the time with 10 upcard, 8 deck, S17) to be the winner. Br 3 already out .

 

[KenSmith]

Surrender is the best play here, but the percentage is not quite that high. If the dealer makes 17, br1 wins, not br1a.

 

[Snapper]

Rationale

Surrender is best for the following reasons:

1) A win by Br3 results in a total of $660 which is $5 less than the $665 the Br1a winds up with by surrendering. The only way Br3 wins is by getting a Snapper - a 4.65% probability; therefore Br1a has more than a 95% advantage over Br3.

It should be noted that Br1a's surrender should be played as a lock over Br3, which essentially reduces the last hand to a 2-person game between Br1 and Br1a. In that case a player is 4% better by taking the low.

2) Br1 made a mistake by standing on the A-6. If Br1a surrenders, Br1 must either win or push the hand to advance; this means the dealer must have an outcome of exactly 17 or bust. Wlith a 10 up (I'm assuming a 6-deck shoe here), the dealer will make 17 12.13% of the time & bust 23.02% of the time, for a total of just over 35%. This should make Br1a about a 65% favorite over Br1.

I was going to wait until Thursday's show to state this answer but I'll be too busy to tune in. I hope Joep will undertand & reward me anyway with a free entry into the $2M tournament :joker: .

 

[KenSmith]

I got an email from someone that misinterpreted what I meant in my last post, and I see now that it could be easily misinterpreted...

When I said two posts back that "the percentage is not quite that high", I meant that br1a's chance of winning is lower than the 77% stated by ssho88. The actual number is 64% or 65% (dealer makes 18 or higher starting with a 10).

I did not mean that there was little difference between surrendering and other choices. Indeed, surrendering is clearly the best play, by a large margin.

 

[richgarcia]

Good Plays by all

BR3 has a long shot at winning with a BJ.

BR1 initially takes the low.

BR1a makes a good surrender play and takes the low.

Questions
Why didn't BR1 hit the A,6? until he/she had a hard hand?? OR
Why didn't BR1 surrender, thereby eliminating BR3, and hoping for better cards and position against BR1a in the playoff??

 

[ssho88]

He will be the winner 64.78% of the time!

Ken, you are correct, if Br 1a surrender, he will be the winner 64.78% of the time!

 

[Walt]

My choice...

would be to stand. Surrender looks good advancing 64.7% of the time. However, I can stand and gain another 23% with the dealer bust forcing a playoff with the co-leader. And I like my chances heads up against a player that stood on soft 17.

 

[KenSmith]

The stand or surrender choice for BR1a:

Standing gives BR1a an 88% chance of going to a playoff with BR1 if BR3 stands.
(If BR3 improves to 19 or better, there could be a three-way playoff if the dealer gets in between.)

Surrender gives BR1a just under a 65% chance of winning, end of story.

So, even if we ignore BR3's possible appearance in a three-way playoff, you'd need to have a 74% chance of winning the playoff to make standing better than surrendering. (88% X 74% = 65.1%)

That's a tall order.

Another item that noone has mentioned is that there is roughly a 1/13th chance that you'll be in a playoff with BR1 no matter what you do. The dealer may end up with a blackjack since this example came from Global where the dealer doesn't have a hole card yet. All the percentages mentioned in this thread assume that the dealer doesn't have blackjack. It doesn't change anything, but it's worth noting.