Question regarding a specific hand.

[contrail]

Hi,

I'm a relatively new member to the site. I been playing in few invitational tournaments this past year and I'm still by-and-large a tournament newbie.

I wanted to get more experienced opinons on the following last hand of a round.

Seat 3 – Total = $49,900, bet = $24,700, hand = 5,6 vs 9, play = double, received a 10.
Seat 4 – Total = $50,800, bet = $50,500, hand = 10,3 vs 9, play = stand

Seat 4 bets first. I'm seat 3 and bets have to be in $100 increments. This was a DD BJ game so surrender is not a consideration. The dealer’s hole card was a 4 and he flips a 9 to bust and seat 4 advances.

I'm of course interested in any helpful comments, but I also have a few specific questions. Would $49,500 have been a better bet for seat 3? Would $25,400 been a better bet for seat 4 (I think that's what I would have bet if I had been seat 4)? Was standing on the 13 better then hitting?

Thanks in advance for your help.

 

[tirle_bj]

analysis

1) Seat #4 has to bet $800 to keep "Low" instead the bet is $50,500

2) Seat #3 has to bet anything more than $900 up to $49,500 to take
the "Low" and overcome opponent's Push with Win (there's nothing to do
if the leader will win)

3) Seat #4 has to consider 21 for an opponent and play "Must Win Strategy"
e.i. hit 'til total of 16, instead he stood.

4) Seat #3 has nothing to do than wait and pray for dealer make the hand
(the only thing to avoid is not to double for more than total of $49,500)

 

[S. Yama]

Additional comments

Okay, before we go into specifics of this case I would like to suggest that many bj tournament situations could be described in a simplified way to make it easier to see what’s at play. Here, for example, it doesn’t matter that the seat was #3 or #4, and it can be slightly confusing if we list seat #3 first but seat #4 bets and then plays first. Our case could be simply described as:
Player 1 (bets and acts first) bankroll 50,800 bets 50,500.
Player 2 bankroll 49,900 bets 24,700.

Tirle response as usual was very good, but let me elaborate a bit more.

From P1 perspective.
P1 needs to decide how good a player P2 is and what she or he would do in response to P1’s particular bets. Some of P1’s choices are:
a) Bet less than the lead (actually, sometimes it is better to bet a chip less than half of the lead) – in our case that would be bet of 400.
b) Bet just enough that if doubled and won P1 would have more chips than P2 betting and winning all of his chips – in our case that would be bet of 24,600.
c) Bet enough that if won P1 would have more chips than P2 betting and winning all of his chips - in our case that would be bet of 49,100.
Bet a) if Player 2 is an experience tournament player. You have “the low†including opponent push.
Bet b) if Player 2 has tendency to bet big but have some experience and would most likely take low if you bet near maximum. You may have some lows if your opponent bets big (anything/loss, push/push or loss) and additional chance for winning doubled bet if your opponent bets big and has a winning hand.
Bet c) if Player 2 is an inexperience player and most likely will bet all of his chips.

From P2 perspective, after P1 has bet 50,500.
If P2 bets and wins all of his chips he can’t surpass P1 winning his bet unless…P2 gets a blackjack.
Receiving blackjack (uncontested by either dealer or P1) on bet of 34,300 or more guarantees P2 advancement. Since 34,300 is more than half of P2’s bankroll and takes away chance of spitting, P2 can bet as much as 49,500 to the same effect.
Second choice P2 has is to bet at least 1,000 but not too much so that P2 can afford multiple spits/double. The strategy is to hit to at least 17 and at the same time one point more than P1’s total (if split, then one hand has to be equal to P1’s and second hand one point better than P1’s, or one hand stiff/busted and second doubled).
Chances for the latter possibility (P1 pushes and P2 gains) is minimal. Chance for P2’s uncontested bj versus P1’s win is almost 1.9% - also not much, nevertheless better choice.

S. Yama