Real EV value of Illustrious 18 (and Fab 4 Surrenders) ?

[PlayHunter]

OK, these questions are not tournament related, but are related to blackjack strategy. (If Sidewalk Cafe section is more fit for this thread, please someone can move it there.)

Q1) This question is probably a bit complicated but I am sure it was raised in the past, so hopefully someone does know the answer or can point me to a tool which can work out this problem:

Lets say we have a blackjack game where if played with perfect basic strategy the house edge would be 0,00 - My question would be how much is Illustrious 18 really worth ? (Yes I know it greatly depends on the number of decks and penetration, and I also know that the most important of it is Insurance bet - about 30% of entire Illustrious 18 value, and also that the first 12 bets of it adds up to 90% of its value.) - I just don`t know what is the real EV value of Illustrious 18, and this is what I want to learn.

So I am thinking at the following experiment: - We consider a breakeven edge game with the following rules: single deck with 50% penetration, bjk pays 3 to 2, dealer stand on soft 17, OBO, double on hard 9, 10 and 11 only, double after split allowed, late surrender, no re-split. House edge 0.00 using basic strategy for one deck.

Lets say we use Hi-Lo count and we are always flat betting, but we deviate from basic strategy applying all Illustrious 18 deviations. (note only Illustrious 18, Fab 4 Surrenders not included) - How much the EV would change to our favor ? But if instead a 50% penetration we would have only 14% penetration ?

I also wonder if in a double deck game with 75% penetration is as worthy as in a single deck with a 50% pen. ?

And I also wonder how much it fades in an 8 deck game with only 50% penetration ? (does still have any considerable value ?)

Q2) Same dates and questions as at Q1), but applied to "Fab 4 Surrenders". - How much value do they have for the above situations ?

 

[KenSmith]

All of these questions can be answered with CVData. It's expensive, but very useful for this sort of thing.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/cvdata-blackjack-simulation-software.html

As for the value of the I18, Don Schlesinger was the original creator of the concept, and he probably gives hard numbers in his book Blackjack Attack.
It's been a while since I looked at that section, so I can't recall specifically.
(The book has been out of print, but I understand a new printing is either already available or will be soon.)

 

[PlayHunter]

All of these questions can be answered with CVData. It's expensive, but very useful for this sort of thing.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/cvdata-blackjack-simulation-software.html

As for the value of the I18, Don Schlesinger was the original creator of the concept, and he probably gives hard numbers in his book Blackjack Attack.
It's been a while since I looked at that section, so I can't recall specifically.
(The book has been out of print, but I understand a new printing is either already available or will be soon.)

Thanks, I have that book and yesterday read about this specific, he gives no hard numbers but gives an exact formula how to calculate the EV of each deviation.. and is pretty hard for me to follow it. I have also read something in Bootlegger`s 200 Proof Blackjack, but the info (at pages 120-123) seemed to me unrealistic: they were saying that if a card counter is expecting to win $100 in a single deck game with good penetration with only using basic strategy, if the counter would make I18 and F4 deviation from basic strategy and play the game as usual the player would expect to win $166 instead of $100 in a single deck with good penetration (does not specify how good, and does not specify the counter`s bet spread) and about $141 in a double deck game.

Well, that statement seemed highly unrealistic to me - that playing I18 + F4 under very good conditions (say single deck with 80% pen) can boost win rate with 66%. - Maybe I am wrong.. - Yes, CVData probably is the right answer, but yes it costs some and the answer to this question probably wont help me much in real life terms - I mean, I can apply I18 and F4 (where possible) without knowing exactly how much does it help me. Was more out of curiosity..

 

[gronbog]

The reason that Don can't give hard numbers is because it not only depends on the game rules and conditions, but also on your betting ramp and style of play (wonging, multiple spots, etc.). I agree with Ken that a simulator like CVData is probably the best way to get this number for your particular game.

My sim doesn't currently handle the I18 per-se. It can generate the indices for a given game and apply them, but index generation takes a long time. Perhaps it's time for me to add the capability for arbitrary sets of static indices.

 

[noman]

Juneau or Keokuk, gronbog and playhunter, I don't want to be a dork here, cause most of your analysis and references are beyond my pay grade. But you might as well throw out any single deck analysis, unless you can find a dealt to the bottom and similarly any pen in a double is unreliable, again, unless dealt to the bottom. As for 6 or 8 with modern cuts and shuffles, your looking at maybe 25% accuracy in establishing a true count in which to establish any of those previous theories. Remember the casino numbers folks have read and analyzed what are now passé advantages. Just like radar detector manufacturers who also develop and sell the detectors to the po po many well know strategy developers have gone to THE DARK SIDE for de money. I believe Grosjean was the last innovator and when his strategies became generally known it came down to being a" fortunate pilgrim" to stumble upon an uninformed(or stupid) casino, or lax dealer. As many here have said. Hunt and hunt and hunt. Then hit and run and hide.

 

[gronbog]

No you're not being a dork, noman. It's a good point that none of this is of any value at all unless it can be applied to real games.

 

[noman]

I'm sure there's someone out there exploiting certain BJ games, but not with some close to 20-year old strategies. gronbog, you keep investigating and crunching, perhaps you'll find the newest and best. Then after you've made gabazillions exploiting the casinos, you can write your book with all the formulas, etc and make another gabazillion. I sincerely hope you do. Good FORTUNE to you.