Skill vs. Luck

B

bwconsulting

New Member
I was just wondering everyones opinion on how much bj tourneys are luck vs skill. Obviously, if you don't get the cards, no matter how good you are you can't win. However, i have seen many of the same people make it to the finals. Maybe divide your opinion between Open and Invitational tourneys.

I have played at four major tournaments and got 2nd in one and 1st in another, all where good size prize pools (25k). They were all single deck also, except one (I didn't make it past the first round).

I have been playing bj for quite a few years, but started tourneys about a year ago. I read wong's book on tournament strategy as well as the "old standards".

I was asking because I wanted to start to play at casinos to try to get invited to "invitationals", and was wondering if I was "good enough".

Thanks,
Brian
 
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In my opinion, the most highly skilled players may be twice as likely to advance off a table as an unskilled player. For example, a skilled player playing a 1 of 6 advance table may have a 2 in 6 chance of advancing.

One reason you'll see a lot of familiar faces at the final table is that the skill advantage is enhanced when a tournament features multiple rounds.

Consider a tournament where 216 players compete, with 36 first round tables of 6 players each, where one advances. The semifinals have 36 players at six tables and again one advances to the finals. A six player finals wraps it up.

An average player will win this event 1 time in 216. Let's consider a player Jane whose skill level affords her twice the table advance percentage. She'll do a lot better than 1 in 216.

Her chances of winning first place are (2/6) * (2/6) * (2/6) = 8/216.
So she's eight times as likely to win this event as an average player.
 
Experience vs Luck

Brian,

Betting $10 into the player who was BR1 and $105 ahead of you on the final hand resulted in your second place win. If the position had been reversed and I was behind you by $105, I wouldn't have bet $10 and been satisfied with second place.. I would definitely have gone after first.

Faye
 
Advice Taken

Faye,
Thanks for the advice, I think I did learn my lesson. :D

From now on, I plan to go for first.

Good luck this weekend,

Look forward to seeing you.

Brian
 
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