The Last Hand........

DanMayo

DanMayo

New Member
.....in my recently played qualifier (7/19/04) for the Masters of Blackjack at Casino Niagara (my 2nd tourney ever). This was in the preliminary round with one person advancing and the second person offered a buyin to the semifinal. (So 2 winners move on)

Table min/max is 25 - 500

1st to bet has 3700 and bets 200

2nd to bet (me) has 3400

3rd to bet has 3130

What should my bet have been?

This is how betting went:

1st to bet has 3700 and bets 200

2nd to bet (me) has 3400 bets 260

3rd to bet has 3130 bets 500.

The way I had it figured is that I was trying my best to protect my BR2 and this bet still afforded me a chance at BR1 (with a DD).

Second question is in how the hand played out:

Cards Dealer Showing 8

1st to bet has 3700 and bets 200 10-10 (Stands)

2nd to bet (me) has 3400 bets 260 10-7 (?) :eek:

3rd to bet has 3130 bets 500 10-9

What is my best play?

I chose to double my hand.

I was playing the dealer as 18 (correct?) and knew that BR3 would pass me with a win and me loosing to 18. This also gave me the chance to become BR1 by passing current BR1.

Was this correct? This was only my second tourney and was another great learning experience. I'm not sure what the odds were for the dealer's hole to be a 10 versus an 8,7,5,4 but figured they were pretty high that he had a pat 18.

I have a rule sheet and other details of the tourney that I will post later this week when I get a chance.

Thanks,
Dan
 
The luxury you have in this situation is that BR3 underbet himself by $35. You will be BR2 if all bets win, and BR2 if all bets lose. The only shot he has of winning is if he wins while you lose -- something that only happens 12% of the time.

The dealer will have a ten in the hole about 1/3 of the time. But basically, you need the dealer to not have a 10 OR nine in the hole -- which lowers your chances right off the bat to about 62% of simply surviving the hole card. Since the only final results that the dealer could make that will ruin your chances of advancing are 17 & 18 (because pushing BR3's 19 while you lose still yields you the win, as well as both of you winning your hands), you still have a total shot of surviving this round in somewhere around 45%.

BUT -- By hitting/doubling your hand, you have a 31% chance of improving your hand, and a 69% chance of busting. Period. In fact, there is no need to double in this situation, since BR3 cannot catch you unless he wins while you push/lose -- and in that situation, it wouldn't matter if you doubled or not anyway. So standing pat on the hard 17 would be the stronger position, despite how unattractive it seems to be!

And believe me, i know all about this situation -- final hand, final table of the WSoBJ this year had me sitting on a 17 with a dealer 10 showing, and needing a win in order to win the tourney. Believe it or not it still made sense in that situation to stand, by a narrow margin of 20% rate of success by hitting, and a 23% chance of success by standing.

So did you advance in the tourney this weekend, or bust out trying?
 
The Double Down.....

....if successful would have given me BR1 and saved me the re-entry fee. And since I thought it would be best to hit anyway, it seemed correct.

Thanks for your feedback Hollywood, I'll have to take some time to break it down and study it.

As far as moving on, this was my only chance. It was a single day tourny with one qualifing round for each player. If you were not in the top two you were out. :(

Thanks,
Dan
 
Damm last hand

That last hand is always a killer! To me it looks like BR1 under bet their hand by $5. By only betting $200 they allowed you to bet $500 to tie them with both of you winning.

Now to your play, I still think I would have gone high since you had a chance to beat BR3 and tie BR1 with a win. By only betting $260 you gave up beating BR1 except with a swing and gave BR3 a chance to overtake you with a swing.

Hollywood noted that BR3 under bet their hand by $35, but he forgot there was a $500 max. bet so BR3 bet the max. they could. Once you busted they didn't have to do anything but hope the dealer didn't draw out to a 19 -21.

Once you commented to going for the middle and caught a 17 I believe I would have stood VS. the dealers 8. Yes, I know that would conceed the win to BR1, but a dealers bust would still get you 2nd place and a qualifying spot.

It is six one way and half a dozen another on most last hands. Don't let this get you down, just wait until you get beat with the lead and a hard twenty as someone DD on a hard 19 to beat you, then you can feel bad...lol
 
Stand.

Very nice analysis by Hollywood and TexT.

Let me fill in some additional information.
I guess it would be helpful to know dealer final results when his up-card is an eight.
Bust- 24.3% 17- 13%, 18- 36%, 19- 13%, 20 and 21- 7% (it is not exactly 100% due to rounding).

So, if Dan stands on his 17 he never wins but he takes the second place 51% of the time (this is when the dealer ends up busting or gets 19 or better).
If Dan just hits his 17 he also never takes the first place. Even if Dan gets 21 and the dealer gets 20, Dan can not overcome BR1.
However, by hitting Dan ends up second more than 46% of the time. The reason for this number being lower than when he stands is that Dan would lose the second spot to BR3 if he busts (9/13th) times the dealer making 17 or 18 and busting (73%), and when he gets an Ace for the hand total of 18 (1/13th) times the dealer ends up 18 (36%) for a push.

Last thing to check is the double down.
Dan takes the first place 0.5% of the time when he gets a four for the total of 21 (1/13th times 7%- when the dealer makes 20).
Dan takes the second place about 36% of the times. It happens similarly to the cases when he stands except for when he loses to the dealer (and BR3) having 19 (probability of this happening is just short of 10%, the dealer’s 19- 13% times 10/13), and when Dan takes the first place.

It seems that the trade off of ½% first place instead of 15% second place was not worth it and the best play was to stand on 17.

It may be an interesting question: How much of the second place would be worth “trading” for the first place?
The answer would depend on the cost of the buy-in to the semifinal, total prizes, number of semifinalists, how much better is “our” player compared to the average player, and the value of entertainment he puts on participation in the semifinals.

S. Yama
 
Last edited:
I gave up 10% by doubling?

First off let me say thanks to all you experienced players that took the time to comment on my "last hand". Being pretty new to this stuff I felt pretty good about getting to BR2 on the last hand and the thought process I went to get to my decision on my last hand play.

S. Yama, in you analysis you stated that:

"by hitting Dan ends up second more than 46% of the time. The reason for this number being lower than when he stands is that Dan would lose the second spot to BR3 if he busts (9/13th) times the dealer making 17 or 18 and busting (73%), and when he gets an Ace for the hand total of 18 (1/13th) times the dealer ends up 18 (36%) for a push.

Last thing to check is the double down.
Dan takes the first place 0.5% of the time when he gets a four for the total of 21 (1/13th times 7%- when the dealer makes 20).
Dan takes the second place about 36% of the times.

Are you saying that I gave up 10% chance of staying BR2 by doubling down? This seems high even thought I gave up the option to re-hit. I'm not quite sure what accounts for this hugh drop?

Thanks,
Dan
 
To err...

Dan,

Yes, a player in the situation you described gives up 5% chance of staying BR2 by hitting instead of standing and gives up close to 15% by doubling instead of standing.

The ten percent difference between doubling and hitting is caused not by relinquishment of receiving an additional card, but by the fact that when you lose your doubled bet (260x2=520) you lose more than the surplus (the difference is 270) you have over BR3.
BR3 has 19 and when the dealer ends up with 19, which happens roughly 13% of the times, whenever you double and lose to the dealer (10/13th of the times) you lose more then the difference you had to BR3 and effectively lose the desired second place. When you bust the original bet of 260 only and BR3 pushes, you still have more money then your opponent and you keep the second place.

Analyzing cases like this helps develop right instinct, intuition, or whatever you want to call it.
Practice (that includes “practicing theoryâ€) makes perfect, or perhaps, I should say, makes better.
It is impossible to play perfectly, don’t feel discouraged if you feel like struggling with knowing the exact outcomes.

I would like to let you in on some secret here. Last night after finishing my poker play around 4 a.m. I looked at you case and did the numbers. I came with result that hitting gets you the second place 66% and doubling down about 10% less. The doubling numbers seemed okay, but I was surprised that hitting was better than standing. I don’t question the hard numbers, and with my critical thinking tired I wrote my reply to your post and titled it “Hit it, baby.†After I clicked “post it†button I couldn’t have rested, so I looked again at my calc and found out that I had forgotten cases where you busted and than the dealer busted, consequently BR3 getting ahead of you. So, I rushed back and retitled it “Stand†and fortunately I just needed to change “numbers being higher†into “numbers being lower†and provide (hopefully) the true numbers.

Regards,
S. Yama
 
Learn, Learn, Learn....

S. Yama,

Thanks again for giving me the answers and insite that hopefully will make me a better tournament player. I have another tourney coming up in a few weeks and I know I have learned new things and should be a better player for it.

Where is a good place or book to get numbers from for hand out comes such as you folks have posted in your responses?

I have also attached a zip file of rules for this tourney for those of you that might be interested.

Thanks Again to all and hope to be good enough to play with you all sometime,
Dan
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top