The roll of LUCK!!

[johng]

As stated previously, I believe Luck is a huge factor in tournaments and short-term swings in regular blackjack.

Here is a recent situation at a mini:

$10 min bet $300 max bet : 1st place goes to finals

3 hands to go
A : 700 on button bet $300
B : 880 bet $130
C (me) : 570 bet $285

A has 20, B doubles and I double all-in - dealer busts and now I am tied for first (Good Luck)

2 hands to go A:1000, B&C: 1140
all bet max bets

B is first to act and gets BJ (Good Luck for her, bad luck for us)
I have 17 and dealer has 10 showing, I stand and dealer beats me (real bad luck for me)

Last hand, I am on button and have $840 2 1/2 max bets out of lead, my only chance is to max bet, hopefully get a pair and split and double. A has $1,000 and max bets $300, B with $1,590 makes a critical mistake and max bets $300. (Really great luck for us as a double win with B losing and I win table). I get an 8 and double down. A gets 2 face cards and splits and ends up with a 19 and 21. B ends up busting and A wins table. (Good luck again for A)

Side Question: After the 2nd to last hand was over I started thinking that I really should have double downed on my 17 as it should have been my only chance for advance. Double and I have about 20% chance of winning and being half bet in lead going into final hand. Thoughts?

 

[TXtourplayer]

DD 17 was the play....OUCH!

Johng when player B hit her BJ in front of you with only one hand to go, to go up by over 2 1/2 max. bets I would have DD. This would have given you your best shot (as low as it might have been).

Even with Player B making a HORRIBLE last bet, you would have still needed a DD or split and had she not made that bet you would have needed a split and DD hand to have any chance at all.

 

[S. Yama]

Johng,

Here are the numbers:
Chance of winning double on hard seventeen against dealer’s ten is 18.5%; chance for push is 5%. If you lose your double you are completely and decisively out.
Now, lets assume that all players are average to good, there is no surrender and you have no additional information about the deck, there are no deals, no reads, etc..
I can’t analyze the case precisely, because I am missing one piece: Player’s A hand. I am deducting that Player A had at least 18 (he pushed the dealer, whereas you lost having 17), most likely twenty. So, before you acted on your hand of 17 you could conclude that Player A will most likely win or push.
Also, you will be first to bet on the last hand.

If you push your double down you still need to gain almost double max bet to Player B and more than half max bet to Player A. This is a difficult task, out of 5% pushes you will succeed about one tenth of the time, contributing 0.5% to your total chances.
If you win your double (18.5%) you will have exactly half max bet lead over Player B and almost, but not quite, one and one half max bet lead over Player A.
A-1,300, B-1,590, C-1,740
You have five major options: 1) bet less than 140, 2) bet exactly 150, 3) bet at least 170, 4) bet at least 235, 5) bet max –300.
The first bet (1) makes you vulnerable to players winning their single max bet. Winning single bet “2†loses to Player A winning double and only pushes Player’s B double, it also opens chance for Player A to full swing you. Bet “3†covers Player’s A double but loses to Player’s B double and loses to his full swing. Winning doubled bet “4†covers triple win by Player A and double bet of Player B. Winning bet “5†pushes Player C getting a blackjack, etc.
Choosing proper play would depend on correct profiling of your opponents. Your rate of success could be 50% to 70%.
If you double down seventeen, your total chances of advancing to the final are about 10%, or slightly more if your opponents are not that good.

Let’s consider the other option, one you actually chose at the table, stand on seventeen.
Seventeen pushes dealer’s up-card ten a bit more than 12% of the time and it wins, whenever dealer breaks, 23% of the time. Push, as in the previous case where you double, is not of a great help, contributing to your total chances about 1%. If you win by standing on 17, in the last round you still need to gain more than half max bet to Player C, and not lose the lead over Player B. Your best shot, then, is to bet max and hope Player C bets less than half max bet. You chances would greatly depend on your opponents’ skills and may vary from 20% to 50% - for your total chances making the final table of about 5%.

Yep, doubling on seventeen is twice as good as standing, though you increase your chances by only about 5%.

S. Yama.

 

[johng]

Thanks!

Nice analysis. I always appreciate your "proof" through the numbers. Thanks.

It was nice to know that I that I "intuitively" figured out that doubling would have been better...now if I can only figure those things out immediately rather than after the dealer passes me...