UB/Bet21 Seating Assignments: feeding the conspiracy theorists
- Thread starter RKuczek
- Start date
RKuczek
Member
seat assignments
in my very latest sngs and tourneys - I have found that my seat assignments have become much more random - last ten tables (tonight) - they were 5,2,7,5,6,3,4,2,5,3 -
as far as sample size - seat assignments were clearly skewed - 1 out of 2 billion is pretty long odds - but for other 'odd' probabilities be very careful in assuming they are the result of skewed/unfair programming - I have tracked hands at times - found one sequence where I won only one out of 23 consecutive hands - pretty long probs on that 0.00003 - but - when you look at the number of hands I have played - since September (reasonable guestimate) - the odds are 93% that somewhere in those hands - I would experience at least one sequence like that -
but when you look at the odds on my seating assignments - the odds of that occuring even once in all the tables I have played is only 0.00000071631
or about 1 out of 1,396,043 - combined with other players experiences - this is clearly non-random -
I would suggest if you want to track hands dealt, stiffs, bjs, etc. - track both yours and other players - as well as the dealers, if you want - but other players are the important ones - look for advantages/disadvantages relative to other players' hands - and look for things like regular cycles in the proportion of hands you receive which are stiffs - cycles in other players hands - and if these correlate with something like your account balance, etc. - don't just look for long odds - look for non-random cycles or a long term disadvantage compared to the other players hands -
in my very latest sngs and tourneys - I have found that my seat assignments have become much more random - last ten tables (tonight) - they were 5,2,7,5,6,3,4,2,5,3 -
as far as sample size - seat assignments were clearly skewed - 1 out of 2 billion is pretty long odds - but for other 'odd' probabilities be very careful in assuming they are the result of skewed/unfair programming - I have tracked hands at times - found one sequence where I won only one out of 23 consecutive hands - pretty long probs on that 0.00003 - but - when you look at the number of hands I have played - since September (reasonable guestimate) - the odds are 93% that somewhere in those hands - I would experience at least one sequence like that -
but when you look at the odds on my seating assignments - the odds of that occuring even once in all the tables I have played is only 0.00000071631
or about 1 out of 1,396,043 - combined with other players experiences - this is clearly non-random -
I would suggest if you want to track hands dealt, stiffs, bjs, etc. - track both yours and other players - as well as the dealers, if you want - but other players are the important ones - look for advantages/disadvantages relative to other players' hands - and look for things like regular cycles in the proportion of hands you receive which are stiffs - cycles in other players hands - and if these correlate with something like your account balance, etc. - don't just look for long odds - look for non-random cycles or a long term disadvantage compared to the other players hands -
My results
Since I returned from my spring break trip this week and saw this thread, I have tracked my seat assignments to sitngo tables ($5-$50):
Seats 1,2,3 - 12 times
Seats 4,5,6,7 - 0 times
Looks like I'm done playing until they fix this problem. However, I'll play MTT when the opportunity arises.
Since I returned from my spring break trip this week and saw this thread, I have tracked my seat assignments to sitngo tables ($5-$50):
Seats 1,2,3 - 12 times
Seats 4,5,6,7 - 0 times
Looks like I'm done playing until they fix this problem. However, I'll play MTT when the opportunity arises.
I would agree with that based on the info I've collected. My most recent series of MTTs is pretty random:
7,2,2,5,1,5,3,5,2,5,1,2,5,6,5,1,7,2,3,7,4,4,4,4,3,6
What are the chances of that happening... 
fgk42
New Member
Table Results
Random – proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern: the random selection of numbers.
Looking at just four (4) separate things: Dealer having an Ace showing, Dealer getting BJ, Dealer drawing to 20 or 21 (without BJ) and Dealer Busting.
The frequency of this occurring is:
Dealer showing Ace – 7.7%
Dealer getting BJ - 4.75%
Dealer drawing to 20-21 - 25.2%
Dealer busting out - 28.2%
In the six (6) games that I played there was a total of 69 hands: Here is the frequency that occurred:
Dealer showing Ace – 7/69 10.1%
Dealer getting BJ - 4/69 5.8%
Dealer drawing to 20-21 - 24/69 34.8%
Dealer busting out - 9/69 13.0%
In one game in particular these were the dealer’s cards:
K-17, 2-21, 7-17, 4-19, A-20, J-17, 8-20, 3-18. I was eliminated on hand 8. I had 1 win (20 vs. 17) and 2 pushes (17 & 20).
Now this is a small sample size to be sure but trust me I have 1000+ hands that I am working on and will post the results later.
Bottom Line: Bet21.com is RIGGED. Statistically this is not an anomaly but a deliberate and thought out decision to quicken their games in order to increase the rake at their tables.
But wait…there’s more to come - for the whole thing visit...
Random – proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern: the random selection of numbers.
Looking at just four (4) separate things: Dealer having an Ace showing, Dealer getting BJ, Dealer drawing to 20 or 21 (without BJ) and Dealer Busting.
The frequency of this occurring is:
Dealer showing Ace – 7.7%
Dealer getting BJ - 4.75%
Dealer drawing to 20-21 - 25.2%
Dealer busting out - 28.2%
In the six (6) games that I played there was a total of 69 hands: Here is the frequency that occurred:
Dealer showing Ace – 7/69 10.1%
Dealer getting BJ - 4/69 5.8%
Dealer drawing to 20-21 - 24/69 34.8%
Dealer busting out - 9/69 13.0%
In one game in particular these were the dealer’s cards:
K-17, 2-21, 7-17, 4-19, A-20, J-17, 8-20, 3-18. I was eliminated on hand 8. I had 1 win (20 vs. 17) and 2 pushes (17 & 20).
Now this is a small sample size to be sure but trust me I have 1000+ hands that I am working on and will post the results later.
Bottom Line: Bet21.com is RIGGED. Statistically this is not an anomaly but a deliberate and thought out decision to quicken their games in order to increase the rake at their tables.
But wait…there’s more to come - for the whole thing visit...
The non-random seating may seem like a joke for some here....but how funny is it that I discovered and changed something so that I now get seat 5,6,or 7 better than 95% of the time..????
And of that 95% I get seat six 90% of the time.
Still laughing?
I know I am....NOW!
I'd be willing to bet that Freds stats will show a certain skewed results as well...especially Dealer Ace and TEN up....
Are you tracking dealer bust rate Fred?? It should bust a certain average as well....not sure but Im thinking every 1 of 4 or 5 hands.....I suspect this rate to be off the scale as well....
The problem with online casinos is no independent oversight ....every legitimate casino has an gaming commission assuring a honest problem free game...
The motive is easy to see....
A honest and open site would order independent tests and publish the results....This would actually be good for their business.
And of that 95% I get seat six 90% of the time.
Still laughing?
I know I am....NOW!
I'd be willing to bet that Freds stats will show a certain skewed results as well...especially Dealer Ace and TEN up....
Are you tracking dealer bust rate Fred?? It should bust a certain average as well....not sure but Im thinking every 1 of 4 or 5 hands.....I suspect this rate to be off the scale as well....
The problem with online casinos is no independent oversight ....every legitimate casino has an gaming commission assuring a honest problem free game...
The motive is easy to see....
A honest and open site would order independent tests and publish the results....This would actually be good for their business.
fgk42
New Member
Funny you should ask that.
I've been tracking that for quite some time.
Just to whet you appetite here's some preliminary data for the past 3 days:
A total of 217 dealer hands were recorded
Of that an Ace was the dealers up card 22 or 10.1% of the time while a face card (10, Jack, Queen or King) was the dealers up card 68 times or 31.3%
During these matches the dealer busted 42/217 or 19.4%
During these matches the dealer drew to a 19, 20, 21 in 108/217 or 49.8%
During these matches the dealer had BJ 8 times for 3.7%
Pretty interested isn’t it?
But Wait – there’s more to come….
Do we STILL think this is a laughing matter?
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If it's rigged, as you say, would'nt
players accounts decrease in a way that does not reflect their previous play on that site up to March, when the problem appeared? Would'nt they show now a higher level of losses than previously?
Personally, I know I've been in the driest of dry spell the last month, but I'm not ready to go as far as saying the game is rigged unless there are shills that we don't know about playing different games. In that time I would say that I benefited most of the time of unusually good seating, especially in SnG's where it seems that I find myself in seat 6 most of the time getting rotten cards on key moves.
Conspiracy theories may lead us to paranoia! Beware
players accounts decrease in a way that does not reflect their previous play on that site up to March, when the problem appeared? Would'nt they show now a higher level of losses than previously?
Personally, I know I've been in the driest of dry spell the last month, but I'm not ready to go as far as saying the game is rigged unless there are shills that we don't know about playing different games. In that time I would say that I benefited most of the time of unusually good seating, especially in SnG's where it seems that I find myself in seat 6 most of the time getting rotten cards on key moves.
Conspiracy theories may lead us to paranoia! Beware
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fgk42
New Member
Just because youre paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you!
Archie,
The numbers don’t lie. Do I have enough to be statistically significant? Not yet. But I could if I wanted to.
My point is this – Perception is Reality.
I’ve caught myself BELIEVING that it is set so that the dealer will have an advantage. I HAVE identified patterns where I’ve been able to predict when the dealer will bust – I’ve seen other players doing likewise.
The problem is that it affects my psyche to the point that when I believe I can’t win – then it becomes self fulfilling.
You’ve played against me in the past, as have other members here. Do you peg me as a min bet player? Nevertheless that is what I have become in order to survive the massacre that happens every SNG that I’ve played in since March. The 1st 8 hands are killers. The 2nd 8 are better. Interesting enough after hand 16 it goes into a “normal” mode.
The problem is the most of the SNG’s don’t last past 16 hands anymore.
So why play? Well if you can identify a flaw in a system maybe you can exploit it to your advantage. That is what I was able to do early on. Now I can’t nail it down and my track record proves it.
Here, download this table, fill it out when you play and after 10 SNG tabulate the numbers. In fact if all members who played at Bet21.com did this we would have a statistically significant amount of data.
I’m just pointing out what I have observed: good, bad – who knows. Do with it what you want. All I know is this: If I can’t trust a company to pay me what they promise, if I can’t trust a company to deal a “fair” and “unbiased” game. Then how do I know they don’t “track me” and deal me shitty cards?
Perception is reality and right now the reality is that I’m not comfortable anymore.
Conspiracy theories may lead us to paranoia! Beware
Archie,
The numbers don’t lie. Do I have enough to be statistically significant? Not yet. But I could if I wanted to.
My point is this – Perception is Reality.
I’ve caught myself BELIEVING that it is set so that the dealer will have an advantage. I HAVE identified patterns where I’ve been able to predict when the dealer will bust – I’ve seen other players doing likewise.
The problem is that it affects my psyche to the point that when I believe I can’t win – then it becomes self fulfilling.
You’ve played against me in the past, as have other members here. Do you peg me as a min bet player? Nevertheless that is what I have become in order to survive the massacre that happens every SNG that I’ve played in since March. The 1st 8 hands are killers. The 2nd 8 are better. Interesting enough after hand 16 it goes into a “normal” mode.
The problem is the most of the SNG’s don’t last past 16 hands anymore.
So why play? Well if you can identify a flaw in a system maybe you can exploit it to your advantage. That is what I was able to do early on. Now I can’t nail it down and my track record proves it.
Here, download this table, fill it out when you play and after 10 SNG tabulate the numbers. In fact if all members who played at Bet21.com did this we would have a statistically significant amount of data.
I’m just pointing out what I have observed: good, bad – who knows. Do with it what you want. All I know is this: If I can’t trust a company to pay me what they promise, if I can’t trust a company to deal a “fair” and “unbiased” game. Then how do I know they don’t “track me” and deal me shitty cards?
Perception is reality and right now the reality is that I’m not comfortable anymore.
I know dealer Aces are way out of line....this isnt anything new or since any recent program change....
Your numbers so far seem to show that
Aces up... are way out of line
10's seem about right
Dealer busts are way low
Dealer BJ....not sure of the numbers here...
Archie....this would not change how often you win or lose....it would remain the same ...the games would simply end faster...
I thought I was going crazy when I started noticing I was getting seats always near the opening button...then I started doing some tests....my tests showed without a doubt that I was NOT being seated randomly ...I still dont think I am being seated randomly and in fact I made some changes and found a way to get seat 6 a very high % of the time....but like you I have not been able to capitalize on that position....I seem to get trounced from these seats ....so I changed my account back and guess what ...back to the rotten seats...and still not winning..lol
its not paranoia .....its seeing things over a long period of time that make you say hummmmmmm...Im glad Fred is checking these numbers.....maybe these anomilys are happening due to an undiscovered bug....how can anyone know without an random independant test?
Im still messing around with seating as I feel this is more important to my game than hot dealer cards...that affects everyones game...
I dont think there are shills or even favored players....I do think the game is adjustable for rake rates....
This seating thing is a programing error that happened with the last update when they instituted the change to move you to the next table of a MTT instantly. Something happened with this change that keeps me in seat 1,2,or 3 ninety-five percent of the time.
Nothing neferious IMO...rather a programing bug...Ive reported it....I have had zero feedback or followup after several reports...so nothing has changed with CS either.
A truely honest problem free game gets to that point by testing and then independant testing with published results...
Heck ...its statisically possible for any combos to hit....but in a long test the numbers need to fall in place...
If this was my game...Id want my numbers to be dead on! And I would show the players those test results....its a simple matter....post everything on a game info page...or refer to the testing company for the results of the successful tests of a fair dealt and run game...
Its so easy!!!!
Your numbers so far seem to show that
Aces up... are way out of line
10's seem about right
Dealer busts are way low
Dealer BJ....not sure of the numbers here...
Archie....this would not change how often you win or lose....it would remain the same ...the games would simply end faster...
I thought I was going crazy when I started noticing I was getting seats always near the opening button...then I started doing some tests....my tests showed without a doubt that I was NOT being seated randomly ...I still dont think I am being seated randomly and in fact I made some changes and found a way to get seat 6 a very high % of the time....but like you I have not been able to capitalize on that position....I seem to get trounced from these seats ....so I changed my account back and guess what ...back to the rotten seats...and still not winning..lol
its not paranoia .....its seeing things over a long period of time that make you say hummmmmmm...Im glad Fred is checking these numbers.....maybe these anomilys are happening due to an undiscovered bug....how can anyone know without an random independant test?
Im still messing around with seating as I feel this is more important to my game than hot dealer cards...that affects everyones game...
I dont think there are shills or even favored players....I do think the game is adjustable for rake rates....
This seating thing is a programing error that happened with the last update when they instituted the change to move you to the next table of a MTT instantly. Something happened with this change that keeps me in seat 1,2,or 3 ninety-five percent of the time.
Nothing neferious IMO...rather a programing bug...Ive reported it....I have had zero feedback or followup after several reports...so nothing has changed with CS either.
A truely honest problem free game gets to that point by testing and then independant testing with published results...
Heck ...its statisically possible for any combos to hit....but in a long test the numbers need to fall in place...
If this was my game...Id want my numbers to be dead on! And I would show the players those test results....its a simple matter....post everything on a game info page...or refer to the testing company for the results of the successful tests of a fair dealt and run game...
Its so easy!!!!
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RKuczek
Member
dealer stats
so far none of the data you have put out here - other than the seating - should be considered odd - in short sequences - it is pretty likely that the card distribution will skew off from the expected - and quite possibly by a considerable amount - and in a long series of short sequences - consider how many tables you have played at UB/Bet21 - it is more likely than not that some of these short sequences will be very skewed off -
what is more important than the dealer results - is how your cards/hands compare to the other players' - are you getting more or fewer stiffs? bjs? - as long as your cards are comparable to the other players' - it should be an even game between the players - and skill should win out in the long run -
I am still seeing non-random seating - the more randomized results I posted a few days ago were almost all multi-table tournaments - in sitngos - still pretty non-random - but a very few left side seats creeping in - in the tourneys - randomized, apparently -
I have tracked my stiffs and bjs against other players - and over more than 500 rounds - it was fairly comparable - for stiffs - but I received only about half the bjs they did (on a % of hands basis) - but the swings were pretty wild - many series of tables where I was deluged with stiffs while the other players got good hands and bjs - then - it would reverse - and I would get the good cards - even the discrepancy in bjs is not very significant over only 500 rounds -
so far none of the data you have put out here - other than the seating - should be considered odd - in short sequences - it is pretty likely that the card distribution will skew off from the expected - and quite possibly by a considerable amount - and in a long series of short sequences - consider how many tables you have played at UB/Bet21 - it is more likely than not that some of these short sequences will be very skewed off -
what is more important than the dealer results - is how your cards/hands compare to the other players' - are you getting more or fewer stiffs? bjs? - as long as your cards are comparable to the other players' - it should be an even game between the players - and skill should win out in the long run -
I am still seeing non-random seating - the more randomized results I posted a few days ago were almost all multi-table tournaments - in sitngos - still pretty non-random - but a very few left side seats creeping in - in the tourneys - randomized, apparently -
I have tracked my stiffs and bjs against other players - and over more than 500 rounds - it was fairly comparable - for stiffs - but I received only about half the bjs they did (on a % of hands basis) - but the swings were pretty wild - many series of tables where I was deluged with stiffs while the other players got good hands and bjs - then - it would reverse - and I would get the good cards - even the discrepancy in bjs is not very significant over only 500 rounds -