Show Recap part 2
Hand 19:
*Henry: $94,000
Rick: $102,000
Nancy: $63,500
Kami: $88,000
The guys make $1000 bets, Nancy bets $20,000, and Kami bets $16,000. Nancy's bet is half what she needs to take the lead, while Kami's bet gives her first high. Neither player covers a potential double by minimum-betting Rick however. Matt incorrectly comments that Rick needs to lose the hand for Kami to take the lead. A dealer six leads to a Henry double of 11. Rick stands with 13, and Nancy with 19. Kami takes a basic strategy double of 10v6. Deanna has an Ace under for 17. Both ladies win, Rick loses and Henry pushes with a 6 on his doubled 11.
Deanna's soft 17 allows Max to note that games where the dealer stands on soft 17s are better for the player.
Hand 20:
Henry: $94,000
*Rick: $101,000
Nancy: $83,500
Kami: $120,000
The bets: Rick $1000, Nancy $15,000, Kami $2500, Henry $20,000. Henry's bet immediately draws the ire of Max who describes it as a terrible bet. He's right. It's a lot of risk, and yet it falls short of catching Kami. Even if she doubles and loses while Henry wins, he's still $1000 short. A bet of at least $29000 makes a lot more sense here. A Queen up for Deanna, and Rick doubles his 10. It's an aggressive play, but he only has $1000 bet anyway. Nancy hits 12, then 13, and busts. Kami and Henry both draw to 17 and lose to a pat dealer 20. Rick's double pushes.
Hand 21:
Henry: $74,000
Rick: $101,000
*Nancy: $68,500
Kami: $117,500
Nancy: "I'm gonna wait", and bets $1000 from the button. Kami bets most of her lead, $12,000. Matt picks up the play-by-play next: "Henry finally comes through with an aggressive bet at the right time." Henry bets half his bank, $37,000. Matt notes that if Henry swings Kami he'll have the lead. Rick bets $8000, which doesn't cover a win by either Henry or Kami.
Deanna turns up a six, and everyone stands with a stiff hand except Nancy who doubles an 11. Although Nancy chants for a dealer 21, Deanna's eventual 17 is just as effective, clearing the table and crippling Henry.
Hand 22:
Henry: $37,000
Rick: $93,000
Nancy: $66,500
*Kami: $105,500
Max likes Kami's lead-off bet of $8000. Henry goes all-in, Rick bets $11,000, which lets him double for the high. However, with hands running out, Max thinks he should bet $21,000 instead. I agree. Remember, he'll bet ahead of Kami on the next two hands. Well, maybe just one hand depending on Henry's fate. Nancy knows she needs to make up some ground, and she knows better than to split her money. She makes a max bet of $50,000.
Kami has a pat 18 against a dealer five. Henry has another 17, Rick a pair of 7s and Nancy's max bet gets a 4-2 to start. Rick has a chance to get a double bet working by splitting the sevens, but that's no longer enough for first high because of Nancy's max bet. This is a good example of a situation where it would have paid to consider those players that seem to be lagging far behind. With a $50,000 max bet, you can't afford to ignore anyone. Rick splits the sevens, and makes 17 on the first hand. He gets a dose of good news on the second hand, drawing a four for 11. Now he can double and he's taken back the high from even Nancy. Attention moves to Nancy's monster bet, where she immediately draws an unwelcome face card on her 6.
With ugly cards all around, and from $33,000 up to $50,000 at risk on the first three spots of the table, Henry, Rick and Nancy start chanting "Ten, Ten, Ten, Ten" before Deanna flips up her hole card. It's an Ace instead, so the Ten-Chant starts all over again. Nope, it's an eight for 14. The Ten-Chant continues, and now the audience joins in. The chant finally pays off when Deanna busts with a King.
Hand 23:
*Henry: $74,000
Rick: $126,000
Nancy: $116,500
Kami: $113,500
My, how things have changed in one hand. Kami drops from first to third, and Nancy is right back in the match.
Henry leads off with a $1000 bet that Max berates as horrible. He's on the button, so I can relate to his choice. In fact, I did exactly the same thing in my round on hand 23 and I was even further behind the leader. Max wasn't as critical of this play when I did it, though he was surprised by it. Seriously, there's an argument to be made here for not risking any of your limited chips when the other players can easily margin your effort. Hey Henry, it looks like a good play to me.
Rick bets $6000 and Nancy follows with $1000. I'd like to hear some opinions about what Nancy's bet here should be. I don't much like $1000. Here are some alternatives: $2500, $4000, $10,000, $16,000, $22,000. Kami makes a surprising move here, probably based on her bad button position on the final hand. She fires up a $50,000 max bet. With the small bets around the table, her timing is great.
Henry's $1000 bet gets a good-looking 20 against a dealer 4. Rick stands with 16, Nancy doubles a soft 16, and Kami has a hard 17. With a Deanna ten underneath the 4, Kami does a solo version of the Ten-Chant, which not surprisingly is not joined by the others. Deanna busts, and Kami has taken a huge lead over the others.
Well Henry, that $1000 bet looks better if you lose it like I did. Somehow I think the difference in Max's opinion of our plays may be in the magic of post-production.
Hand 24:
Henry: $75,000
*Rick: $132,000
Nancy: $118,500
Kami: $163,500
Rick takes a page out of the Henry and Ken playbook and makes a minimum bet from the button. However, with only one hand to go, it's a much tougher sell for me. He's more than half a max bet behind Kami, and she can guard against the others with a bet as small as $5500 on this hand. Perhaps Rick figures her for another huge bet instead.
Nancy bets $40,000, and Max correctly notes that she should bet $50,000 instead. Kami bets $15,000. Max mentions $25,000 to get a full max bet ahead of Rick, but I like a $4000 or less bet instead to insure that she remains a half-max ahead of him. That also means Nancy must double to pass her. Henry goes a little brain-dead here, and comes up with a bet of only $30,000. He needs good things to happen, and in a hurry. Max says he should bet either half his bank or a max bet. I'll narrow that choice even further and say he must bet $50,000 here. Perhaps he focused on Rick's bankroll and bet half of what he needed to pass Rick. The problem with that is twofold: Rick's not the threat, and much more importantly, if Henry loses this $30K, he's toast. When losing $30K eliminates any chance you might have, you may as well bet $50,000 instead.
Against a dealer two, Rick splits sixes and makes 16 and 15. Nancy stands with 17, and Kami stands with 12v2. Matt notices the deviation from basic strategy, and Max explains that Kami's play is a good decision that insures that she stays ahead of Nancy. Henry draws a 16 against a dealer two, and under the circumstances he should double. The whole table has lousy cards, so he could end up in second place if he swings the table. He stands instead, which guarantees he'll be in last place for the final hand. To top off things, Deanna is back to her old tricks again. She draws out 2-2-A-6 for 21.
--continued--
