Show Recap part 2
Hand 17:
Mike.......$136,000....$1000....K4
*Brian.....$114,000....$4000....K9
Eric.......$188,500....$25000...JK
Jason......$212,000....$1000....5A Dbl 6
Michelle...$203,000....$6000....AT
Dealer 4AQAQ
Eric bets enough to take the lead, even considering a minimum win by Jason. If this is a precision bet by Eric including a Jason $1000 win before he even bets, it's a darned good play. It's unfortunate that Jason catches a basic strategy double here to throw a wrench in the works. As a good rule of thumb, whenever you're covering a minimum bet, cover a minimum double. It's cheap insurance. Still, nice play, Eric. (Eric posts here at BJT as mdbjII-man, a handle which is the envy of many!)
Hand 18:
Mike.......$137,000....$50000...6T
Brian......$118,000....$50000...93
*Eric......$213,500....$12000...JJ
Jason......$214,000....$1000....T3
Michelle...$212,000....$10000...JT
Dealer 4T3
Let me play these one by one. Eric played this hand better than I would have. I'd probably use the rule of 5 and bet $2500 here since I trail by $500. I figure it's a cheap shot at the lead. However, it's much more likely that Jason and Michelle would margin me with that bet than with Eric's more aggressive $12K. As a result, his bet is more effective than mine would be. He can afford the $12K, yet it's enough to make the other leaders hesitate to follow suit.
Next up is Jason's bet. In Jason's seat I lose $11,000 more than he does. I would have followed Eric's $12K. On to Michelle, who would have benefited from my bet. She would win $4000 more and have the lead.
For Mike and Brian, I agree with their max bets. They may not get many more opportunities to have a $38K difference between their bet and the rest of the table. Unfortunately, when they get swung by Eric and Michelle, they're in tough shape.
Hand 19:
Mike.......$ 87,000....$10000...99 Split -> 945 / 9Q
Brian......$ 68,000....$50000...5K Dbl ($12000) J
Eric.......$225,500....$1000....A392T
*Jason.....$213,000....$1000....28 Dbl K
Michelle...$222,000....$15000...KA
Dealer 8Q
Jason's minimum bet from the button is reasonable. A larger bet would likely be matched, unless it is dangerously high. Eric chooses to let Michelle have her shot at the high, and she connects at three to two. At first glance, I thought Brian's double of 15v8 here was ridiculous. After all, there are still 6 hands left in the match. However, the deciding factor is whether his unbet $18K is worth anything if he loses this hand. Obviously he needs to hit the hand anyway, and only if he draws an Ace would he like to be able to hit again. Given those details, he may as well get the extra money working. Note that he saved exactly 6 minimum bets for the 6 remaining hands. Whether for the chance of moving up in the money or just to ensure maximum TV time, maybe he's sharper than I thought. When his double busts, Matt gives us a status report on Zembic: He's "down to 6 grand, a pair of fake breasts, and a pulse."
Hand 20:
Mike.......$ 97,000....$50000...QJ
Brian......$ 6,000....$1000....98
Eric.......$224,500....$1000....47 Dbl Q
Jason......$215,000....$33000...36 Dbl A
*Michelle..$244,500....$2500....KT
Dealer 793
In one of the classic moments from this show, Jason makes a precise $33,000 bet to take the lead, and then goes for the slam dunk by doubling 9v7. When Deanna draws out to 19, all attention focuses on Jason's face-down double card. A worried Jason says "Show me the Ace", and Deanna does just that. What a draw!
Hand 21:
*Mike......$147,000....$50000...44J
Brian......$ 5,000....$1000....788
Eric.......$226,500....$1000....J7
Jason......$281,000....$1000....A65T
Michelle...$247,000....$18000...5J Surrender
Dealer QT
Mike is struggling to get back in this thing, but it just isn't happening. Eric is showing extreme patience here. Max and Matt are critical of Michelle's bet because it isn't enough to take the lead. However, I think it's a pretty sharp bet. A double yields the desired first high (though it doesn't cover a minimum-bet double by Jason. There's that idea again.), yet she can surrender without losing a substantial amount. This 4:1 ratio between double and surrender is a strong tactic. The only complaint I have about this move in this spot is that she's got bad button at the end, so she may not be able to afford the security it offers. She needs the lead sometime in the next 4 hands. However, her bet looks much better than the alternative $36K when she draws the 15 and must surrender.
Hand 22:
Mike.......$ 97,000....$50000...4K Dbl ($47000) 8
*Brian.....$ 4,000....$1000....Q8
Eric.......$225,500....$1000....9A
Jason......$280,000....$1000....JK
Michelle...$238,000....$40000...64K
Dealer T26
Michelle's bet this hand is just a little short, which Max attributes to a possible chip-counting error. She's played a pretty sharp round so far, but this is a mistake. MIT Mike for the second time has bet $50K of a $97K bankroll, rather than the slightly better $48,500. If he was dealt a pair of Aces, he would have noticed the difference. He gets all his money working this hand anyway, on a good choice. Just like Brian's situation earlier, except more so... If he loses the hand, his $47K has very little value. He instead chooses to be well-paid on this hand if he succeeds. He doesn't, and there will be no repeat champion this year.
Hand 23:
Brian......$ 4,000....$1000....9Q
*Eric......$226,500....$1000....96
Jason......$281,000....$1000....89
Michelle...$278,000....$1000....938
Dealer 36T
Yep, Michelle has a bad chip count here. Max tells us that's the only explanation that makes sense, and I agree. She thinks that her previous hand $40K win gave her the lead, so she's matched Jason's bet here. She's got an unpleasant surprise coming when she discovers her mistake. Meanwhile, Eric is waiting for the button to pass him before he risks any money. That means he must make up more than a max bet deficit in the final two hands. That's a tall order, and he should have made a move before now.
Hand 24:
Brian......$ 4,000....$1000....2TK
Eric.......$225,500....$50000...658
*Jason.....$280,000....$1000....97 Surrender
Michelle...$279,000....$1000....TJ
Dealer K38
Michelle hasn't discovered her problem yet, and again matches up with Jason. And that's just the first goof this hand. Jason should stand, and Max deserves praise for picking up on that and mentioning it in his commentary. Instead, Jason surrenders. It may seem insignificant with a minimum bet working, but when you only lead by a minimum bet, it's a big deal. Next up is Eric's decision to hit instead of double. My guess is that this mistake is also caused by an inaccurate chip count. I'm guessing that Eric thinks winning $50K will give him the lead.
I've mentioned before that the chip stacks in this tournament were incredibly difficult to count because of the low chip denominations and corresponding monster towers of chips. At this table, with more than three quarters of a million in chips in front of the three front-runners, we're seeing the effect of that. I feel for you guys. This was a very tough round to play well.
Hand 25:
Brian......$ 3,000....$3000....T4
Eric.......$175,500....$50000...29 Dbl 2
Jason......$279,500....$48000...7T
*Michelle..$278,000....$48000...29 Dbl 3
Dealer 25T
Well, it's apparent that we had a countdown before this hand, because Michelle's bet is clearly chosen with knowledge of her $1500 deficit. It's calculated to keep the low if Jason just pushes out a max bet without considering the implications. It doesn't work, but it's a good ploy that comes at no cost.
In her seat, I'd be tempted to virtually lock out Eric with a bet of $2000. But that sure does make winning first place a lot tougher. Upon deciding that opening the door for Eric is an acceptable risk, I'd make exactly the same bet Michelle did here. In fact, I'd play this entire hand exactly as it played out.
When both double-down cards are revealed as duds, Jason takes first place and Michelle advances to the wild-card round. This was an exciting round, from start to finish.
