What to do?

[Monkeysystem]

I try to analyze my losses as opposed to brooding over them, though Mrs. Monkey sometimes can't tell the difference. :laugh: Here's one I had recently. Could someone help me analyze this? The following is an extreme example of the situation I faced, not exactly the same but it illustrates the theory:

Last hand, two advance, no surrender allowed, betting range 5-200.

==> BR3 bankroll 350 bet 175, cards T,T split to 12 and 13
Me bankroll 447.50, bet 200, cards 19
BR1 bankroll 750 bet 50, cards 18
Dealer T

How should I play my 19?

If the situation were a little different as asked below how might it affect my play?

What if BR1 were out of reach?
What if surrender were allowed?
What if BR3 made one or two pat hands instead of two stiffs?

 

[KenSmith]

Interesting spot.
Double the 19, for any amount between $55 and $200.
If you catch an Ace or 2, you're a lock.
If you bust, you're no worse off than you were before: If the dealer makes any hand, you advance.

Now, for the other questions...
"What if BR1 were out of reach?": Being able to reach BR1 or not doesn't matter here, since two advance and BR3 is stiff on both hands. That's why doubling for $55 is just as good as doubling for $155.

"What if surrender was available?": Likewise, surrender doesn't matter at this stage of the game. You already have 2nd low, and surrendering wouldn't get you 1st low.

"What if BR3 made hands?": If BR3 had made hands instead of stiffs, what then? Depending on the strength of BR3's hands, you can't easily just throw away your $200+ by doubling on the 19. That's deadly if BR3 gets a push or better. At that point, you need to consider exactly what dealer totals will allow you to advance if you stand. In most cases, that's likely to be your best play.