What Would You Do ?

[Joep]

This is a hand that I had to play last Friday night at the weekly Venetian UBT Turbo Sit & Go's and I'm not 100% sure I played it right. How would you have played this hand ?.

The new buttons were being used so the eliminations hands were 5-11-16 and then you play the remaining 5 hands to a total of 21 hands.

On hand 11 these are what the bankrolls looked like

Betting first in seat 6 Unknown Player BR 14,000
Betting 2nd in Seat 1 Yama Br 23,500
Betting 3rd in Seat 2 Joe P Br 24,000
Betting 4th in Seat 3 Unknown player BR 22,000
Betting 5th in Seat 4 Stanley Roper Br 29,500

Let me take you inside my head, before the hand is even played this was what I was thinking I need to bet at least 4,500 to lock out the low bankroll.I knew that after this hand the next elimination hand which was 16 would fall on Yama who was directly to my right.So 4,500 or 5,000 was going to be my bet unless Yama did something unexpected.I try to make it a habit of looking ahead to the next elimination hand and where my position will be on it.The way thinks looked Yama would be betting first on hand 16 so it was important to me to stay ahead of him approaching hand 16.

So Seat 6 bets first and bets 14,000 as expected,Yama I believe decides to take a chance that I will let him go on the high side when he bets 7,500 instead of 5,000 which would have taken him to 28,500.His bet of 7,500 takes him to 31,000.I follow suit and match Yama bet with a bet of 7,500 myself.

Now seat 3 bets 10,000 and seat 4 bets 3,000

Here is what happens after the bets are made.

Seat 6 is dealt a 14 and hits to 21 with a 7

Yama is dealt A-3 and hits to 20 with a 6

I have 10-5

Seat 3 has 10-2

Seat 4 has A-9

Dealer has a 10 up

What should I do with my hand ?

In no specific order

Hit
Stand
Surrender

Joep

 

[tgun]

Quick play!

I might have to think deeper, to tired right now.

So I would not hit or stand. I would either surrender or dd for $1500. Ok, I'll go with surrender!

tgun
p.s. I'm tired because I just won the Ameristar Sunday BJ tournament. $2700.

 

[Monkeysystem]

Tough Cards

I like surrender too. It forces seat 3 to win or push with the 12 against dealer 10. If you hit and bust seat 3 can just surrender to lock you out. It gets you out of this bad situation as cheaply as possible as long as seat 3 loses.

Congratulations Tgun!!!

 

[Reachy]

3 strikes

I concur with Tgun and Monkey on this one; Joe should surrender. Seat 3’s actions are what shape your strategy in this situation. If we only had to consider the 2 seats who acted before you then you should hit which is slightly better than standing. As you can see surrender here would be a disaster!

Hit – 27.3%
Stand – 26.8%
Surrender – 3.77%

However with Seat 3 to act this is no longer the best way to act. Here’s why. I looked at what Seat 3 should do for each of the actions that Joe could take. If Joe stands then S3 should surrender (Surr – 77.0%; Hit – 33.1%; Stand – 23.0%). If Joe hits then S3 should surrender on anything Joe gets up to a total of 19 and of course if Joe busts. S3 should hit if Joe gets 20 or 21.

Joe 17	Joe 18	Joe 19	Joe 20	Joe 21	Joe Bust
Seat 3	Seat 3	Seat 3	Seat 3	Seat 3	Seat 3
stand 	stand 	stand 	stand 	stand 	stand 
23.02%	23.02%	23.02%	23.02%	23.02%	23.02%
Surr	Surr	Surr	Surr	Surr	Surr
64.84%	52.74%	40.61%	3.77%	3.77%	100.00%
H17	H17	H17	H17	H17	H17
33.73%	32.48%	31.22%	27.41%	27.02%	34.98%
Hit 1	Hit 1	Hit 1	Hit 1	Hit 1	Hit 1
32.15%	31.22%	30.29%	27.45%	27.16%	33.08%

If Joe surrenders then S3 has to hit for a 33.1% chance of surviving. If he stands his chances are 23%; surrender gives 3.77%.

So if we flip it back again and assume that S3 makes the statistically correct decision after Joe's action (which is much easier for him than Joe) then we see that on balance it is better for Joe to surrender. Surrender forces S3 to hit which gives Joe many ways to win (dealer beats S3 or S3 busts) and Joe can also win if the dealer draws to 21 to beat S6 and push S1. If Joe hits then what S3 does depends on Joe's total but it's easy to calculate the different outcomes for that. Basically S3 surrenders for Joe's totals 17-19 which means Joe must win or push his hand, but from 20-21 and bust S3's actions are irrelevant to Joe; Joe's 20 or 21 correlates with either S1 or S6 and Joe has a lock. If Joe stands, S3 surrenders, no question. Here are my numbers.

Surrender - 65.4%
Hit - 30.51%
Stand - 23%


Interestingly, David Matthews over at LVA.com suggests standing which was my initial thought.

Cheers

Reachy