RKuczek
Member
I figured some of the posters on this site will appreciate this - it happened literally minutes ago at Daytona Beach greyhound track. Daytona Beach just finished its afternoon session - I need to give some background info - so you can appreciate this -
The total Win pools for the 15 races today were:
Race 1: $351
Race 2: $319
Race 3: $216
Race 4: $349
Race 5: $246
Race 6: $239
Race 7: $279
Race 8: $234
Race 9: $171
Race 10: $804
Race 11: $266
Race 12: $488
Race 13: $3,378
Race 14: $3,152
Race 15: $1,532
Notice something odd here? The pool totals for races 13, 14, and 15 are unusually large. Daytona is obviously a very small track, with small pools. The 10th race is a very large pool for Daytona, but within the normal range.
Now, look at the betting on the dogs in the 13th race: The amounts bet on the individual dogs for the 13th race were:
Dog 1: $509
Dog 2: $525
Dog 3: $532
Dog 4: $126
Dog 5: $524
Dog 6: $536
Dog 7: $524
Dog 8: $102
Quite obviously, some one put down, at the very last minute, $500 bets on all the dogs but the two favorites. A total of $3,000. How did he do? The 6 dog won, paying $9.00 for a $2 ticket, giving the bettor a total return on his 250 tickets of $2,250, for a net loss of $750.
The 14th race is even better. I was betting the 1 dog, which should have gone off as the favorite or co-favorite, I was hoping for 2-1 odds. I was quite unhappy when I saw he was going off at 1-9 odds - My dogs win a very high percentage of the time, but 1-9 odds don't make money. The 1 dog dropped to 1-5 odds as they were going into the starting box, and they showed the last tote totals at the track. Still yuk - 1-5 odds don't make money either.
Imagine how surprised I was to see the 1 dog pay off $25.00 on a $2 ticket when he won. How could a dog go from 1-5 odds to 11-1 odds in 30 seconds? Here are the betting totals for that race on the individual dogs.
Dog 1: $181
Dog 2: $433
Dog 3: $408
Dog 4: $425
Dog 5: $429
Dog 6: $425
Dog 7: $418
Dog 8: $433
Some one put down, at the very last second, $400 bets on every dog in the race except the 1 dog, which was a prohibitive favorite. Net loss to the system bettor: $2,800. Total losses over the 13th and 14th races: $3,550.
What is this person doing? Maybe he learned that favorites win only 27% of the time in greyhound races, and are over-valued on the average? Maybe he didn't think about the size of the betting pools, and how his bets would distort the odds in such small pools? Maybe he was just a complete idiot?
But he wasn't wiped out yet. He still had a little money left. The bets on the individual dogs for the 15th race were as follows:
Dog 1: $96
Dog 2: $81
Dog 3: $318
Dog 4: $331
Dog 5: $317
Dog 6: $28
Dog 7: $316
Dog 8: $45
He obviously had enough money left to make $300 wagers on 4 dogs, total of $1,200 bet - so he made his bets on the 4 dogs with the longest odds. The winner of the 15th race was the 1 dog, so the system bettor's net loss on this race was $1,200 - giving him a net loss over the three races of $4,750.
It's good to have a system.
The total Win pools for the 15 races today were:
Race 1: $351
Race 2: $319
Race 3: $216
Race 4: $349
Race 5: $246
Race 6: $239
Race 7: $279
Race 8: $234
Race 9: $171
Race 10: $804
Race 11: $266
Race 12: $488
Race 13: $3,378
Race 14: $3,152
Race 15: $1,532
Notice something odd here? The pool totals for races 13, 14, and 15 are unusually large. Daytona is obviously a very small track, with small pools. The 10th race is a very large pool for Daytona, but within the normal range.
Now, look at the betting on the dogs in the 13th race: The amounts bet on the individual dogs for the 13th race were:
Dog 1: $509
Dog 2: $525
Dog 3: $532
Dog 4: $126
Dog 5: $524
Dog 6: $536
Dog 7: $524
Dog 8: $102
Quite obviously, some one put down, at the very last minute, $500 bets on all the dogs but the two favorites. A total of $3,000. How did he do? The 6 dog won, paying $9.00 for a $2 ticket, giving the bettor a total return on his 250 tickets of $2,250, for a net loss of $750.
The 14th race is even better. I was betting the 1 dog, which should have gone off as the favorite or co-favorite, I was hoping for 2-1 odds. I was quite unhappy when I saw he was going off at 1-9 odds - My dogs win a very high percentage of the time, but 1-9 odds don't make money. The 1 dog dropped to 1-5 odds as they were going into the starting box, and they showed the last tote totals at the track. Still yuk - 1-5 odds don't make money either.
Imagine how surprised I was to see the 1 dog pay off $25.00 on a $2 ticket when he won. How could a dog go from 1-5 odds to 11-1 odds in 30 seconds? Here are the betting totals for that race on the individual dogs.
Dog 1: $181
Dog 2: $433
Dog 3: $408
Dog 4: $425
Dog 5: $429
Dog 6: $425
Dog 7: $418
Dog 8: $433
Some one put down, at the very last second, $400 bets on every dog in the race except the 1 dog, which was a prohibitive favorite. Net loss to the system bettor: $2,800. Total losses over the 13th and 14th races: $3,550.
What is this person doing? Maybe he learned that favorites win only 27% of the time in greyhound races, and are over-valued on the average? Maybe he didn't think about the size of the betting pools, and how his bets would distort the odds in such small pools? Maybe he was just a complete idiot?
But he wasn't wiped out yet. He still had a little money left. The bets on the individual dogs for the 15th race were as follows:
Dog 1: $96
Dog 2: $81
Dog 3: $318
Dog 4: $331
Dog 5: $317
Dog 6: $28
Dog 7: $316
Dog 8: $45
He obviously had enough money left to make $300 wagers on 4 dogs, total of $1,200 bet - so he made his bets on the 4 dogs with the longest odds. The winner of the 15th race was the 1 dog, so the system bettor's net loss on this race was $1,200 - giving him a net loss over the three races of $4,750.
It's good to have a system.
