Wrong double ? (next to last)

[PlayHunter]

Next to last hand, min/max bet 100/500 no surrender, BR2 (me) 800 chips, BR1 901 chips.

BR2 bet 203, and BR1 match it 203. BR2 get 11 and BR1 14, dealer up card 7.

(* if BR2 should double, what would be correct if dealer card would be 10 instead of 7 ?)

I doubled, got a 5, but I am thinking that it might be wrong, since a swing was already likely to happen and also considering acting last on the last hand ?

Also I was thinking at the bankrolls, in case it was wrong to double my 11 with the current bankrolls, would still be wrong if the bankrolls would be bigger ?

And last question is about BR1 optimal strategy: he should double his hard 14 in response to my double or only if I would hit something between 18 to 21 ?

A BR1 bet response of 303 would be better to BR2 203 bet on this next to last hand ?

 

[gronbog]

What does blackjack pay on a bet of 203? Does it pay the full amount (304.5) or is it truncated to 304?

 

[PlayHunter]

What does blackjack pay on a bet of 203? Does it pay the full amount (304.5) or is it truncated to 304?

It is truncated paying out 304. Good tip ! (I guess I should bet at least 204 to get the full amount for a lead - instead of only a tie - if both players win)

 

[London Colin]

What does blackjack pay on a bet of 203? Does it pay the full amount (304.5) or is it truncated to 304?

That's an interesting question. I haven't played at GameAccount for a while, but in the past I observed that the display would briefly flash the fractional score, before resolving itself to the integer value. I never determined whether this was just a display issue or if the BR was actually being rounded down.

 

[London Colin]

A BR1 bet response of 303 would be better to BR2 203 bet on this next to last hand ?

Or possibly 103.

There is certainly a lot of value in BR1 trying to stretch the lead to > 200, as he will be acting first on the final hand.

 

[PlayHunter]

Or possibly 103.

There is certainly a lot of value in BR1 trying to stretch the lead to > 200, as he will be acting first on the final hand.

Yes, but a bet of 103 would not cover a BR2 blackjack which I think is valuable. (and also this would not be able to cover a BR2 double with a BR1 blackjack)

Also, a bet of 103 would not be able to cover a BR2 double. It is right that a bet of 303 will give up the low in order to cover a BR2 double, but I think this is more valuable since on this hand BR1 is acting last, and seeing the final hand of BR2 gives more value whether BR1 should double to cover BR2 double or not ?

 

[gronbog]

It is truncated paying out 304. Good tip ! (I guess I should bet at least 204 to get the full amount for a lead - instead of only a tie - if both players win)

Well since you are acting first, BR1 could still bet so as to cover your blackjack, unless you bet 402 or more. I was thinking that BR1 should have bet more in response. 303 would be an easy calculation at the table.

 

[gronbog]

Next to last hand, min/max bet 100/500 no surrender, BR2 (me) 800 chips, BR1 901 chips.

BR2 bet 203, and BR1 match it 203. BR2 get 11 and BR1 14, dealer up card 7.

An exact answer to your questions would require a full two-hand analysis similar to the ones that I have generated for the other 2nd last hand threads that we have discussed.

In the mean time, we can discuss your questions from the point of view of someone who wants to be BR1 going into the final hand. i.e. what's the best way to overtake the current BR1 in this situation?

(* if BR2 should double, what would be correct if dealer card would be 10 instead of 7 ?)

I doubled, got a 5, but I am thinking that it might be wrong, since a swing was already likely to happen and also considering acting last on the last hand ?

Is a swing really that likely here? In most situations, given a choice between winning a double and generating a swing, I choose to double. In this case, you have a strong basic strategy double and I would guess that doubling would be the best choice against most dealer up cards. It turns out that you should double vs a dealer 2-6 and hit vs a dealer 7-A. You would hit to 17 or better vs 7 and A and to 18 or better otherwise. In your particular situation (11 vs 14 vs 7) your chances were 45.6% for hitting and 41.3% for doubling.

Also I was thinking at the bankrolls, in case it was wrong to double my 11 with the current bankrolls, would still be wrong if the bankrolls would be bigger ?

Bankroll is a consideration, since it is the second last hand. Losing your double while BR1 wins could leave you behind by 710 with only 397 to bet, which would be a lock for BR1 on the final hand. However, in the situations in which you should double to take the lead (vs dealer 2-6), it turns out that your chance of success is in the 40-41% range in each case. Coupled with your chances of prevailing as BR1 acting last on the final hand, I think that you should go ahead and double. Sometimes the strategy which has the best chance of success also has the best chance of catastrophe.

And last question is about BR1 optimal strategy: he should double his hard 14 in response to my double or only if I would hit something between 18 to 21 ?

By doubling you have made BR1's hand largely irrelevant if he does not also double. If you win, you take the lead, if you lose, he retains his lead. His hand only matters if you push and he loses. By doubling, he gains another way to stay ahead by winning his double.

The obvious case is that if you double to a stiff, then he can double for a lock. But what about other cases? It turns out that he should match your double vs any total you get and vs any dealer up card.