Chance of losing a hand if your first card is an Ace

Jonny21

Jonny21

Active Member
I will be going to a casino that offers a bonus if you stay there. The bonus is a coupon that allows you to use it as an Ace for your first card at the start of any hand. According to a table from The Wizard of Odds, the value of that coupon is .504 or $5.04 on a $10.00 bet.

I plan to make as big a bet as they allow, at an opportune time, ;) so I wanted to see what my chances are of losing the bet. It looks like I would be expected to lose about 28% of these bets, yes?


If you could play 100 hands of $10.00 using the coupons,in a neutral deck, you would make $504.00



Breakdown would be:


31 Blackjacks = (4/13 X 100) = 31 X 15 = +465.00

On a little less than 2 of those, the dealer
would also have BJ, so you wouldn't get paid
(Dealer gets BJ about 1/20 of hands) = -30.00

So the blackjacks account for $435.00 of the advantge

For the other 69 hands, you net +80.00, so you must
win eight more than you lose. You push 9% of the time, (69 X .09 = about 6) That leave 63, so that means winning 35 and losing about 28.

Of course, I will have to be ready to split and and double the big bet if necessary.

Does this look about right? Thanks. Jonny
 
I don't know the exact percentages, nor do I have time to verify your calculation. However, I would say your calculations are on the conservative side. You are assuming normal Blackjack play which is not the case. You will only be using that "coupon" when the deck is very heavy in 10s. So you will be getting a disproportionate amount of 10s which you did not take into account - don't know how you would.

They had a similar promotion a couple of times at the Horseshoe-Tunica a couple of years ago and I cleaned up by betting the most my coupon allowed. I also noticed others using their coupon and the large majority made a bundle. In the right player's hands, this is a candy store for a seasoned player. Simply do your counts and use you coupon when 10s are a strong possibility. Sometimes that works too well. In my case, when I used my coupon, everyone (5 players) and the dealer got a 10. The floor person was shocked, authorized my payment and walked away without saying a word. That promotion ended shortly after that and has not been repeated.

But that's not all. The dealer thought the coupon was a MATCH PLAY and paid me for the coupon and 3:2 on my blackjack. So I walk with a payment of 5:2. I though about telling the casino but they were busy so I let it go. :D
 
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Consider that the appropriate Kelly bet for a hand with a starting Ace is over 40% of your total bankroll. Anyone serious about making money in casinos will be making the max bet allowed with this coupon.

It's certainly not a lock, but your edge here is huge.
 
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