Final hand betting strategy

P

ptaylorcpa

Member
Here is how the final hand looked at my table as best I can recall.

I was sitting with BR3, $500 and also had the button which means I had to play my hand first. The final bets were all made in secret, but were put out before play began. There is no limit, but a $50 minimum on the final hand. Winner advances automatically to final table, second place goes to one more round to decide final seat at finals.

BR1 was to my left, so she would play after me. BR1 had $4800.

BR4 was next in line to play. BR4 had $400.

BR2 would be last to play. BR2 had $2000.

The other two players at the table were busted.

First question:

What should each player bid on their secret bet? Remember blackjack pays 2-1 and you can't surrender.

After I get some discussion I will let you know what they each bid and how the hands played out.
 
Here is what i think

You didn't tell us was this dealt face up or face down.I will assume it was dealt face up as most tournaments are.Betting first you dont have much of a choice as your BR is 1500 behind BR 2 and 4300 behind BR 1.You are going to need some help from BR 1 and BR 2 and hope they over bet their hands.Br 1 should bet not more than 750 leaving back 4050 locking out BR 2 to a BJ only and he can still double to get back to first place if BR 2 were to get a BJ.BR 2 need to lock you out to a straight win so he should bet 950 and hold back 1050 which will force you to get a BJ to pass him if he lost his hand.You need to bet it all and hope they make a blunder.Br 4 should call a cab to go and see TXTOURPLAYER and schedule a cow tipping session
 
I like your strategy Joep :)

I have to agree with you on strategy, but I think all of us at the table must have been newbies and didn't do our math very well, because you will be amazed at how it turned out. The cards are dealt up, I'm not sure why BR1 would worry to much about BR2 catching a blackjack to pass, but obviously that was thought about in her bet. BR2 had been lucky and gotten at least two during the round, so maybe that was on BR1's mind. But knowing that sitting second was a guarantee to advance to a playoff round for a seventh seat on the final table would make me think that BR2 would have not risked it especially since he could not see what her bet was going to be in advance of his. One thing is for sure, we all seemed to make up our minds to quickly on what we were going to bet.
 
Yep, JoeP summarized the best plays nicely.

p, Though you don't mention the actual bet of BR2, it sounds like they did not lock you out with a bet of $950 or less. That's a nice opportunity for you. Without that goof, you and BR4 could share that cab.
 
The bets

Ok, here is how the bets came out. BR1 bet $800, leaving $4000 in hand. BR2 bet $1500, with $500 remaining. BR4 bid $100, leaving $300. I bet $250, leaving $250. How I came up with my bet, I am clueless, must have been having a senior moment. All I remember thinking was I'll bet half, with a chance to double up if I get a good hand. Also it would leave me $50 more than $200 which is what I thought for some reason might be the hold back BR4 and BR2. Obviously I wasn't doing the math for their hands to figure their optimum bet. I thought maybe there was an outside shot that BR2 would go for the win and not leave enough fall back. I obviously didn't think about what BR4 would do.

The cards are dealt, I get hard 12, BR1 draws a hard 17, BR4 draws a hard 13, BR2 draws a hard 14. No pairs to split. Dealer's face card is a nine.

I'm stuck playing my 12 first. I think I should have been smart and gone ahead and doubled down to force BR4's hand if I drew a good card, but I wasn't that smart at the time, so I just hit and drew a 4 to give me 16. Now I was really between a rock and hard place. My $250 was not going to do any good if both BR4 and I lost, and regardless we would both be out if BR2 kept his $500 and BR4 lost. So I hit again and busted.

BR1 stood on her 17, which would be a loser if the dealer turns a 10. BR 4 now draws two cards and goes to 21!

I think BR2 realizes he has a big problem now, if he loses and BR 4 wins, he is beat. He has an outside shot to tie BR1, so his only choice is to throw it in. He does and busts.

Turns out the dealer does have the 10, so BR1 ends up with $4000, BR4 has $600 and I had $250. Exciting finish for BR4. I think in that round I may have only drawn one or two wins, maybe a couple of pushes, so I was lucky to even have anything to show for the final hand.
 
more rambling

Hey, good comments, here is some more rambling.

This is a good example showing that:
a) You can expect less experienced players’ bets to be all over the map.
It doesn’t mean, contrary to some people believing so, that it is easier (more beneficial) to play against good players because you know what to expect of them.
b) Novices often incorrectly bet exactly the whole lead or the amount that if won ties them with their closest opponent winning his maximum bet.

To recoup: BR1- 4,800 ... BR2- 2,000 ... BR3 (pt)- 500 and BR4- 400

BR1 best bet is <800 but >600.

BR2 is 100% guaranteed the second place- worth one sixth of the first place (assuming he is an average player amongst the second place takers) if he bets less than 500.
If BR2 bets more than 500 he increases his chances for the first place at the cost of decreasing chances for the second place. To weigh value of these two decisions we need to assume probabilities for BR1 betting: a) less than 600, b) more than 600 but less than 800 c) 1,200 to 1,300, d) more than 1,300.
(Sometimes it is easier to do the opposite – estimate value of play to determine a threshold percentage that your opponent needs to meet to warrant our play. More on it later in my message.)

BR2 making a small bet (guaranteed the second place and playing in additional round) has 1/6 (16.7%) of max reward (being in the final). Let’s say this play is worth 16.7 points.
If BR1 chooses option A (betting less than 600) - BR2 wins this tournament round only by getting a blackjack with a big bet out. However, the big bet reduces or eliminates chances of getting the second place if it is lost because BR3 and BR4 may push, or win their bets, or simply keep more money in the rack.

Now, let’s consider BR2’s betting 1,450 and 2,000.
It seems that BR2’s bet of 1,450 and keeping 550 in the rack is a good option. If BR2 gets a blackjack he would end up with more than 4,800 -so BR1 would need to win his hand to win the round. BR2’s bj gives him first place about 2.5% of the times (worth 2.5 points) and second place 2.2% (worth .37 points). BR2 wins his hand (but not with a blackjack) and takes second place about 39% of the times (worth 6.5 points), he pushes or loses his hand but BR3 and BR4 don’t overcome him about another 36% of the times (worth 6.0 points). The total value of this play (if BR1 bets less than 1,350) is 14.0 points.
If BR1 bets more than 1,350 than the situations is the same as above, except that BR2 wins the tournament round when he wins his hand and BR1 loses. This play is worth 22.7 points.
You have to estimate that BR1 will bet less than 1350 no more than 70 out of 100 times to make BR2’s bet of 1450 better than betting 500 or less and locking the second place.

Now, let’s do BR1’s 2,000 bet.
Blackjack gives him first place unless BR1 wins 1,200 or more, so does any other win if BR1 loses more than 800. However, it is almost certain that losing 2,000 drops BR2 below the second place. This play is worth 4.5 points if BR1 bets less than 600, about 3 points if BR1 bets more than 600 but less than 800, and slightly more than 12% even if BR1 bets more than 1,200. BR2’s 2,000 bet is worse than 500 bet regardless of what BR1 bets.

(There is a third option, mentioned in this thread, bet of 950. BR2 may still lose the second place by pushing or losing and BR3 or BR4 getting a blackjack. The upside is in swinging BR1 if he loses more than 1,850, or winning doubled bet and BR1 losing more than 900 with a danger of losing that doubled bet and almost certainty of losing the second place as well.)

Also, worth noting is that there is a conflict in choosing playing strategy. As BR1, you want to play more aggressively to swing BR1 to win the round but at the same time less aggressively to maintain the second place and not lose to BR3 or BR4.

S. Yama
 
Thanks!

I appreciate all the comments, this is a learning experience for me. Do you actually sit there and do all this math in your head when you are at the table or does it come more naturally after playing a lot? Also can you recommend a good book that discusses how to figure your optimum bet? I have read what Ken has on his web site, but other than that I haven't come across anything else in the books I have read so far.
 
Books

I just got my copy of Stanford Wong's book "Casino Tournament Strategy" and I think I have found the answer to my last post. I find this an excellent book, but he doesn't ramble enough for me, you have to really read everything a couple of times to understand what he is saying. Definately worth the read though!
 
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