Final hand decision

[Dondon]

This situation is from yesterdays GPC tourney. First round final hand, two players advance:

BR2  $1405  $270  T T Stand W   --> $1675 
BR3  $1125  $500  T T Split W-W --> $2125
BR1  $1845  $10    ?        W   --> $1855

Dealer 6

1. Was BR2´s bet correct?
2. Was BR2´s decision to stand correct or would you recommend splitting TT against 6 in this situation?

Thanks for your help.
Tony

 

[catch 27]

BR2 needs to stay ahead of BR3 when 2 advance. BR2 could have bet $500 with BR3 and still have 905 held back. BR3 had $625 held back. Once BR3 split BR2 should split also, BR2 would still have $405 held back, BR3 had $125 held back. Splitting with BR3 gives BR2 the best of it. Without knowing who bet first, as a second thought, with the $270 BR2 bet, BR1 was ahead of BR2 by $440, BR2 should have split even with $270 bet to stay ahead of BR1.

catch 27

 

[Dondon]

Without knowing who bet first

BR2 bet first, followed by BR3 and BR1.

You say BR2 should have split. Is the probability of winning both hands really higher than the probability of getting a stiff hand and hoping for a dealer bust? BR3 had TT and could have stand in that case.

Tony

 

[KenSmith]

I like the $270, but then split

When no betting order is mentioned in a post, you should assume that the listed order is from the betting button. With BR2 on the button in this case, only the last ideas of catch 27's post are applicable.

On the bet: I like $270, since it guarantees second low, and second high (single bets only). That's what you want when two advance.

Once the cards are dealt, your situation is tougher.
I think the preemptive split is the best play for BR2. Worst case: You catch two stiffs and have only a 42% chance of advancing if BR3 surrenders the 20. If you catch better cards of course, you're in pretty good shape.

 

[tirle_bj]

I think $370

Here we have a typical case: straight low ($270) cannot protect us from opponent's double. The difference we have between BR2 and BR3 is $280, so we need at least $370 > (500 x 2 - 280)/2 to cover opponent's double by our double.
Now if our opponent bets max then we're in better shape, otherwise he has to bet big enough to cover our Surrender and have low at the same time. So if we surrender our $370 the difference becomes 280 - 185 = 95 and BR3 has to bet over $95 but under $80 which is impossible. Now if we're dealing with really sophisticated opponent then he might bet anything between $100 and $150 taking low by Surrender. As you can see in this case our chances might be slightly worse but I estimate the chances of that kind of bet for BR3 no more than 5%. As to this case with BR2's $370 it's worth now to split BR2's (T, T) because we'll be cover BR3's split.
In actual case with BR2's bet of $270 there's no reason to split because it doesn't protect us from opponent's double win.