More analysis on Countwood/nicki/ken21/selecti
Joep said:
Looking at your bet you needed the ability to hit your hand again if you drew a small card.Selecti did not need to double his 17 because he will go to 1375 with his straight win bet of 410 ,which will beat your 1230.If he does not double he wins as the dealer would have busted
Joe, Selecti did need to double. While his straight-up win beats me, it would not beat Countwood who stood with 18. Countwood goes to $1475 with a win.
If Selecti hits without doubling, Countwood wins if the dealer busts or makes 17. With a successful Selecti double, he takes both of those outcomes away from Countwood.
I on the other hand did not need to double. I can't pass a win by Countwood even if I double, because I only get to $1460. I MUST have a swing, and the extra money I could win by doubling doesn't help me at all. So, both me and Selecti played correctly. I didn't double, and he did.
If anyone is still following along, I'll save you the trouble of translating the play by play. Here it is, in button order. One advances:
Countwood...........$1205..............$270..............8K
nicki406...............$945................$420..............J23Q
Ken21..................$730................$500..............Q56
selecti.................$965................$410...............7J Dbl 2
Dealer has 28J
Once selecti makes 19 on his double, I win only with a dealer 20. That's a 12.4% shot.
All the bets are very good...
Countwood's bet here is excellent. From the button, he covers BR2's max bet. He has first high, surrender first low, and his single win covers me if I get all-in. Very nice!
nicki takes about the only thing available. Bet a bunch, but retain the ability to surrender and beat a push by Ken21. Definitely better than a max bet here for her. It also gives selecti a chance to make an error and give her the low back if he bets max. Again, very nice.
For me, there's no point in anything other than a max bet. I know I must swing Countwood and I know I can't catch him even all-in.
selecti does make a small bet sizing mistake. He should have either matched nicki's bet of $420 or bet $415 or $425. With his $410 bet, he ties with nicki for the high if they both double. FYI, you don't have to do the math to avoid this mistake at the table. When margining an opponent who trails you, you can afford to bet more or less than them, but you have to stay within half your lead of matching their bet. selecti strayed by exactly half the lead. (He led by $20, and bet $10 less than nicki.)
Still, not bad. He has first low, and dilutes nicki's bet in every way other than a double down.
