go to mdbjII march ....it was my first tournament......I was last to play on the last hand.......Swogger.........I decided to stay on my hand ..please see the march final table .........I had second locked up win or lose...but I thought about a double for less ....1100.00...can any one tell me the probability for sucess on that move......thanks. Rick
Help
- Thread starter swog
- Start date
TXtourplayer
Executive Member
Don't check the next card!
Rick, don't beat yourself up with woulda, coulda, shoulda, plays. You walked away with $10,000 and a shot at the Million in May, be happy.
I hope you didn't check the next card out of the shoe. I never check, nor want to know the next card (if I am last to play); it doesn't matter unless you take it. If you look and you would have lost anyway it doesn't matter and if it would have helped you you'll go to your grave remembering "What If"!
Think about where you were at, $10,000 for sure or maybe going down to $2,000 or less. I was in a situation in the first MD tournament, should I double my soft 17 vs. the dealers 9 for a chance to win the $20,000 1st place and risk going to last place for $1,500 or keep my 2nd to 3rd place finish for the sure money?
My choice was keep the money as well. As it worked out I got a ten and the dealer had an 8 in the hole for 17 as well. I ended up in 3rd place either way.
Now had I have been in the Championship finals I would have doubled down in a heartbeat for the million dollars. There the gap between 1st and 2nd or 3rd is so great it would be worth the risk.
Remember it is "YOUR MONEY" and "YOUR CHOICE" right or wrong you’re the only one that can play the hand. One last thing, your in the finals so you had to be doing something right, why start doubting yourself now.
Just never change clothes before the semifinals or finals (sorry Angie I couldn't resist...LOL)!
Rick, don't beat yourself up with woulda, coulda, shoulda, plays. You walked away with $10,000 and a shot at the Million in May, be happy.
I hope you didn't check the next card out of the shoe. I never check, nor want to know the next card (if I am last to play); it doesn't matter unless you take it. If you look and you would have lost anyway it doesn't matter and if it would have helped you you'll go to your grave remembering "What If"!
Think about where you were at, $10,000 for sure or maybe going down to $2,000 or less. I was in a situation in the first MD tournament, should I double my soft 17 vs. the dealers 9 for a chance to win the $20,000 1st place and risk going to last place for $1,500 or keep my 2nd to 3rd place finish for the sure money?
My choice was keep the money as well. As it worked out I got a ten and the dealer had an 8 in the hole for 17 as well. I ended up in 3rd place either way.
Now had I have been in the Championship finals I would have doubled down in a heartbeat for the million dollars. There the gap between 1st and 2nd or 3rd is so great it would be worth the risk.
Remember it is "YOUR MONEY" and "YOUR CHOICE" right or wrong you’re the only one that can play the hand. One last thing, your in the finals so you had to be doing something right, why start doubting yourself now.
Just never change clothes before the semifinals or finals (sorry Angie I couldn't resist...LOL)!
First, congrats on making the finals in your very first tournament. That's an awesome accomplishment!swog said:
You asked, so I'll fill you in. Yes, you did overlook a free double to possibly win first place. It was really a no-risk situation, because everyone except the chip leader had already stood on a stiff hand. If you stand, you're guaranteed second place. If you double, the worst you can do is second place, and about 36% of the time, you'll win first place.
Don't feel bad. These are tough choices at the table, and even the most seasoned players often overlook the best play.
I'd say your track record is pretty enviable at this point!
Oh, I forgot to mention: As you pointed out, you should double for less here. The $1100 amount you settled on would be just right.
Just for the convenience of those reading along, here's a link to the final table in our Play by Play section:
http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/lvhmar2004.php
Just for the convenience of those reading along, here's a link to the final table in our Play by Play section:
http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/lvhmar2004.php
Not sure it is a "free" double
Without doing the math, I think doubling for less is right move, however, about 31% of time he will bust and 36% of time dealer will bust so odds of both swog and dealer busting is about 11%. So about 11% of time, double for less will lose "guaranteed" 2nd place.
Without doing the math, I think doubling for less is right move, however, about 31% of time he will bust and 36% of time dealer will bust so odds of both swog and dealer busting is about 11%. So about 11% of time, double for less will lose "guaranteed" 2nd place.
I think you made the right play!
Doing some analysis, I think standing is the right play!
Based on your bankroll and bet and BR1 bankroll and bet, if you both win (dealer bust) you will end with $10,100 and BR1 would end with $9,950. With a dealer 3, there is a 38% chance of dealer bust so you have 38% chance to win and 62% chance for 2nd.
You don't need more money on table, so no need to double, you just need to win.
If you hit, you have 31% chance of busting, 31% chance of getting a stiff and 7.7% chance of getting 17, 7.7% 18, 7.7% 19, 7.7% 20 and 7.7% of 21.
Based on one card, you have 35.9% chance of 1st, 52.5% chance of 2nd and 11.6% chance of 4th.
Good job on getting to final table and winning 10k!
Doing some analysis, I think standing is the right play!
Based on your bankroll and bet and BR1 bankroll and bet, if you both win (dealer bust) you will end with $10,100 and BR1 would end with $9,950. With a dealer 3, there is a 38% chance of dealer bust so you have 38% chance to win and 62% chance for 2nd.
You don't need more money on table, so no need to double, you just need to win.
If you hit, you have 31% chance of busting, 31% chance of getting a stiff and 7.7% chance of getting 17, 7.7% 18, 7.7% 19, 7.7% 20 and 7.7% of 21.
Based on one card, you have 35.9% chance of 1st, 52.5% chance of 2nd and 11.6% chance of 4th.
Good job on getting to final table and winning 10k!
TXtourplayer
Executive Member
2nd is better then nothing
Swog, you were right the only way for you to win was to DD for less ($1,100). And you were also right that by doing so you could have gone from 2nd to 5th place $2,500, a $7,500 loss.
BR1 Macway had 1st if the dealer made a hand (which they did).
BR3 Shin had 1st with a dealers bust.
BR2 had 2nd no matter what.
With the chance of you busting I think I would have done the same as you.
However I think they're were several bad plays made or (not played) on the last hand.
BR5 Evelynn should have DD for less if she wanted any chance of winning. I would have keep back $250 to assure 5th place. She ended up in 4th place for $3,500.
BR1 Macway made a horrible bet only betting $500. Both BR2 (you) and BR3 could catch him with that bet. He needed to play $1,600, this would have given him both high and low for the win and enough to cover your DD had you (BR2) gotten a DD as well. Only a swing would have beaten him. As it turned out he won anyway, congrat's on the $20,000.
BR4 Ryan should have DD in their position since they're were three players in front of her, for any chance of her winning. She moved up to third and collected $6,000.
BR3 Shin was the only player to DD on the last hand (he had an 8 & 2) and caught a 3. He dropped from BR3 ($6,000) to BR5 ($2,500).
So should you have DD? Who knows, look at the results from below.
BR1 - WRONG thing and WINS
BR3 - RIGHT thing and drops down 2 places (-$3,500)
BR4 - WRONG thing and moves up one place (+$2,500)
BR5 - WRONG thing and moves up one place (+1,000)
I guess in gambling "Wrongs can make a Right"....LOL!
Swog, you were right the only way for you to win was to DD for less ($1,100). And you were also right that by doing so you could have gone from 2nd to 5th place $2,500, a $7,500 loss.
BR1 Macway had 1st if the dealer made a hand (which they did).
BR3 Shin had 1st with a dealers bust.
BR2 had 2nd no matter what.
With the chance of you busting I think I would have done the same as you.
However I think they're were several bad plays made or (not played) on the last hand.
BR5 Evelynn should have DD for less if she wanted any chance of winning. I would have keep back $250 to assure 5th place. She ended up in 4th place for $3,500.
BR1 Macway made a horrible bet only betting $500. Both BR2 (you) and BR3 could catch him with that bet. He needed to play $1,600, this would have given him both high and low for the win and enough to cover your DD had you (BR2) gotten a DD as well. Only a swing would have beaten him. As it turned out he won anyway, congrat's on the $20,000.
BR4 Ryan should have DD in their position since they're were three players in front of her, for any chance of her winning. She moved up to third and collected $6,000.
BR3 Shin was the only player to DD on the last hand (he had an 8 & 2) and caught a 3. He dropped from BR3 ($6,000) to BR5 ($2,500).
So should you have DD? Who knows, look at the results from below.
BR1 - WRONG thing and WINS
BR3 - RIGHT thing and drops down 2 places (-$3,500)
BR4 - WRONG thing and moves up one place (+$2,500)
BR5 - WRONG thing and moves up one place (+1,000)
I guess in gambling "Wrongs can make a Right"....LOL!