Interesting hand in GP's Christmas tournament

[KenSmith]

Here's an interesting hand from today's Global Player tournament...
It's from a first round table where two players advance:

[/font]
[font=Fixedsys]Xanax	 $2187.50 $150	6 7 Surr	-> $2112.50[/font]
[font=Fixedsys]tahoewolf $2350.00 $500	T 6 Stands -> $2850.00[/font]
[font=Fixedsys]Ken21	 $2250.00 $210	T 7 Surr	-> $2145.00[/font]
[font=Fixedsys]Excelsior $2320.00 $200	T 9 Stands -> $2520.00[/font]
[font=Fixedsys]Jackaroo $1570.00 $500	9 2 Dbl 5 -> $2570.00[/font]
[font=Fixedsys]

As you can see, tahoe and Jack advanced.

However, there are several interesting decisions to be made by several players, including the bets and the play of the hands. Rules were $10 to $500 with late surrender.

I'll start with some of my thoughts on my own $210 bet. It did several things for me... I have a $2.50 low over Xanax, and can surrender if he surrenders. I also can surrender into a low against Tahoe if he doesn't surrender. I can double down if needed to beat a double down by Jackaroo.

At the time, I mistakenly thought that my $210 bet had value by making Excelsior's decision more difficult. (It doesn't.) I don't know if there's a better bet here or not. Basically, I've pinned my hopes on 2nd low.

Now, once the cards are dealt, should I double or surrender my 17?

If I surrender, the dealer must make a hand to beat Tahoe, and the dealer must beat or push Jackaroo's doubled 11. Conveniently, if the double pushes or loses, then the dealer must have made a hand, negating condition one. Jackaroo's Lose or Push doubling 11vT is roughly 49%.

If I double instead, I probably advance if I win the double (18%). (Excelsior might considering doubling the 19 behind me, but I don't think it's likely since Jackaroo could still get a bad card on his certain double.)

So it appears that surrender=49% and doubling=18%. Have I overlooked anything here? At the time, I thought it was a lot closer than that.

 

[Jackaroo]

Don’t lose hope…

…even when your chances are slim. As BRLast going in, my bet was a no-brainer. I needed a BJ with a max bet just to catch up with everyone else. The DD on my 11 was also a no-brainer. I had the last-hand luck when the dealer busted after I caught a stiff.

The last hand on the next round (semi-final) was also an illustration of the vagaries of the blackjack gods. Tahoe and I were on the same table again but I was BR1 going in this time.

Sundevil 2410 bet 500
jeff596 1740 bet 500
Jackaroo 2680 bet 500
Tahoewolf 2095 bet 500
*ebbesand 2172.50 bet 500

With everybody ahead of me betting max (and assuming Tahoe behind me acting last would do the same) all I had to do was follow suit and have both the high and the low.

When the cards came out, everybody had a stiff except one player, Sundevil or ebbesand I believe, had 17. The dealer had 5. Everybody doubled down; again all I had to do was follow suit and still keep the high and low.

I caught a 4 on my 12, the dealer made a hand, Tahoe and jeff596 beat the dealer for a swing on me, and it was Tahoewolf instead of me sitting next to Luckygem (aka Gflan) at the final table.

*Sigh* Close but no cigar.

 

[S. Yama]

High that isn't

Xanax.......$2187.5....$150....6 7....Surr ->........$2112.50
tahoewolf..$2350.......$500....T 6...Stands ->.....$2850.00
Ken21.......$2250.......$210....T 7...Surr ->.........$2145.00
Excelsior....$2320.......$200....T 9...Stands ->.....$2520.00
Jackaroo....$1570.......$500....9 2....Dbl 5 ->.......$2570.00


Xanax is first to bet and fourth most money. Tough spot to be in. Usually betting max and often times doubling on anything is the best play.

Tahoe made a good bet. It still could be fine-tuned. Tahoe leads Ken by 100 and Excelsior by 20. Bet of 460 covers all that the bet of 500 does (except of bj and Excelsior’s bj) including all players winning doubled bet and Tahoe retaining the “top two” position. Surrendering 460 allows keeping more than Xanax would kept after surrendering his bet.

Excelsior have to match Ken’s bet within $30 to have benefits of advancing when both of them win double downs. However, most likely action for Jackaroo is to double down and Excelsior needs to bet 260 (or 270) to better it by winning single bet. It still gives him low over Ken’s bet if Ken’s bet is a “regular” bet. See bellow if it is.

Ken’s hand qualifies for three different bets: Big bet for taking high, possibly even without doubling down, or most often useful small bet for taking low, or a medium bet which based on bets made by players betting after Ken and cards dealt could be played as low or as high bet.
Skillful players, like Ken, can benefit from the third kind of bets quite often, but there two problems with it.
Player can be “middle out” which means that with four other players two of them might take high and two might take low that couldn’t be matched. The other problem is that usually there are conflicting ways of playing this hand and only one “direction” can be used.
For example, bet of 210 gives Ken “second low” and this is how most advancement would be achieved. This bet under normal circumstances (close to basic strategy play) would additionally advance the player as high bet some twelve to fifteen percent of the time.
But look what’s happening. When Xanax surrenders Ken in most cases (except when having blackjack, or twenty and sometimes nineteen) has to surrender his hand. He also has incentives to surrender in most cases when Tahoe surrenders, or when Excelsior has a pat hand that is slightly better than Ken’s, or to force Jackaroo to double instead of hitting (or standing on high pat hand). Also, betting minimum would make it obvious for Xanax to play his hand "to win".
So, bet of 210 is low bet in disguise of a medium bet, that makes it harder for the opponents to play optimally.

My personal choice most likely would be to bet mid-high.
Range of 330 to 350 looks particularly good.

S. Yama