Make this Bet

J

Joep

Active Member
Final hand 2 player one winner betting limits 5-100 (Frontier Tourn. )

Player A bets first and has a Bankroll of 250
Player B bets last and has a Bankroll of 365

Player A bets 100

What should Player B bet be ? and why ?

Persons with the correct answer get 1 month of Rick Jensesns College Hoop picks FREE
 
Trick question?

Sounds like the obvious answer is 100 -- to correlate with the first bettor and give the best shot of advancing (88% of the time they will both win or lose together, making B the winner). B could bet less than 15 to shut out a single bet win from A but a natural or double down ruins that plan. So i'd bet 100 and hope for the same result.

-holly d.
 
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correct my math

hollywood, if 88% of the time the results are the same for both players then player B making a minimum bet ($5) should win 88% of the time, the remaining 12% would be split 50% with either player winning which stills gives player B the win, that leaves a 6% chance for player A to win (not considering player A and the dealer could both get a natural for a push) which would reduce the 6% chances for player A to win. if my calculations are correct player B has a 94+% of winning with a minimum bet. so i'd make a minimum bet which allows more opportunities for player B to win then just hoping for the same results.

ps: joep if my answer is correct, in addition to Rick's free hoop picks i want 100 bonus points to bet with
 
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rookie, the problem is that a minimum bet by Player B means that Player A wins with any successful double down.

The probability of Player A winning a double or split on the next hand, when he or she plans to double anything, is roughly 30%. That means player B's minimum bet is only good for about a 70% win rate.

Hollywood's max bet is just fine here.

JoeP, I know why you ask, so I'll help you make your point by adding a third player. Here's the setup:

Player A bets first and has a Bankroll of 250
Player X bets second and has a Bankroll of 120
Player B bets last and has a Bankroll of 365

Player A bets 100
Player X bets 100
What should Player B bet, and why is the best bet different from Dave's now?
 
Alright, these are the kind of questions I like, we can all learn from this. :) However, I like the fighting between Hollywood and Joe P. as well. As long as nobody loses an eye :eek:!!!!

Ken, I would bet $90 here. This would shut out X if he got a blackjack and B lost his bet. It would also cover A's double down if B just won his hand.

I guess the reason this bet is different than Dave's $100 bet is that by betting $90 you are doing two things. You are beating BR2 both ways and you are shutting out BR3.

Let me know what you think?


Thanks,

Slim
 
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$90 would be my bet, but it can be improved

Slim, you arrived at my likely bet at the table, using much of the same thinking...

For a moment, assume bets must be in increments of $5, which is typical. I expect that Slim assumed the same.

Player A can get to $450 with a double down, so I need to get to $455. I'll bet $90. If I figured the fact that it locks out a blackjack by Player X, all the better. While that would probably cross my mind, I wouldn't waste any effort calculating it, because I know I've bet the least I can to cover A's double. If that doesn't lock out X's blackjack, oh well, I can't afford to.

Well, I managed to make a mistake in this example and as a result I still haven't illustrated the subtlety that Joe intended when he posted.
I intended $95 to be the best bet, but I changed Player X's bankroll at the last minute and mangled that, because $95 doesn't lock out the Player X blackjack.

All is not lost though...
At the Frontier, you can bet in increments of 50c, using the $1 and $2.50 chips. While I didn't intend to require that in the answer, I'll use it now to fix my mess.

You can actually bet as much as $94.50 and still lock out a Player X blackjack. Betting a little over $90 is better than exactly $90 for the following reason:
If Player A gets all his money working (split and double for less), and Player B gets a blackjack, Player B has it covered without doubling. With a $90 blackjack, he just ties A's all-in win. So the best bet is $90.50 to $94.50.

No way am I coming up with that bet at the table! Kudos to 'YMe' for coming up with that answer in an identical scenario posed during a chat at Global between rounds on Sunday.

Joe, sorry about hijacking your thread. I intended to just respond to rookie's post, and then I got carried away. Then, when I mangled my own example, I felt it necessary to clean it up.
 
Its easy at home with paper and pen

The reason I put down the Frontier is that you can bet in $1 increments over the min bet of $5 so a $91 bet is the perfect bet.It covers Player A getting all his money into action and reaching a total of 500.That is of course if Player B gets a blackjack.If not he can still double to beat player A total of 500.Yme did come up with that bet but I would guess paper and pen were in use .The original sitution was 500 vs 730 with a max bet of 200 .So 175 would be the bet that comes to mind first.Without paper and pencil,and 5 minutes of thinking.Frontier gives you 2 minutes.
 
bad bet

Ken,
you said my bet would only win 70% of the time against BR2 and was not the optimum bet, if 70% odds for a win is not the best bet but a bad bet please explain, i'll take 70% all day long
 
Poor SOB

I hope for everybodies sake they all miss this question. My picks have been the kiss of death...LOL!

Joep wouldn't $86 be the best bet for player B?

Player A has $250 + they bet $100 and have to DD another $100 = $450
By betting $86 this will give Player B $451 (if both win).

And if Player A does get all of their $250 in play = $500, Player B can still DD if needed for the win.

Never mind I see my mistake, $91 covers Player A ($500 all money in) if Player B hits a BJ, ($501.50).

Yea your right, with the New Frontiers hour glass timer pouring sand down in front of you, I would have bet $100 I'm sure.
 
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2nd Place ?

On the original question, I'd've bet something betwee $90 and $110 under the pressure of the Frontier hour-glass.

Does the second-place winner of this challenge get two months of Rick Jensen's College Hoop Picks?
 
Risky

Dave being a fan of mine (for sports picks) can not only be risky, but lately costly as well...LOL.

I think all my bets have gone south all a sudden.

I played with Kevin (GSN) B. at my table today for the Global-Player tournament. I busted out three times hitting 10's on two card 12's, and catching a 2 & 3 on DD's on 11 two other times. That was five of the 13 hands I got to play, I don't want to talk about the other 8 hands they were really bad...LOL.

Even Kevin told me my cards stunk!
 
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