My worst play of the week

[KenSmith]

Despite an expensive week in Vegas, with no tournament finals and very few winning gambling sessions, I'm actually pretty happy with my performance there. I played well, and I had only two situations that arose where I'm not sure I made the right play. (I'm sure there are errors I'm unaware of, of course!)

The first was in the MDBJ semifinals, on hand 29. I'll actually have to wait to see it on TV to decide whether my play was the right choice or not. After the round, I was unable to reconstruct the bankrolls to analyze the situation. After a difficult decision, I surrendered a 14vT, putting me in last place when my opponents were paid on the hand. However, with my limited memory of the bankroll situation, I think my play in that case was justified. I'll know for sure in August after I see the Travel Channel show.

My other questionable decision this week was definitely the wrong play, and I realized it immediately after waving off my hand. It was a classic "deer in the headlights" moment, with me not knowing what to do with my hand. There were arguments to be made for standing, hitting, doubling and surrendering, but none of these was particularly appealing. I was confused by my options, but as usual things became clearer once I decided to stand. It was an awful play.

It's the final hand of round 1 in the Texas Tournaments Super-Mini at Fitzgerald's on Monday night (night 2). Betting limits are $10 to $200 in $10 increments, and surrender is available. Two players advance. I'm on the button (bleh), in 2nd place, and here's the situation in playing order:

[/font]
[font=Courier New]Dealer has a 6 up.[/font]

[font=Courier New]Player	 Bankroll	 Bet	 Cards[/font]
[font=Courier New]Ken Smith	 $870	 $200	 T 5 [/font]
[font=Courier New]Dannye		 $765	 $200	 A 3[/font]
[font=Courier New]Surrender Y. $925	 $200	 T 2[/font]
[font=Courier New]Gayle F.	 $860	 $200	 6 7[/font]
[font=Courier New]Jeff Blenkarn $705	 $ 10	 ? ?[/font]
[font=Courier New]

(What's with those "code" tags on this message board software anyway? I tried and tried to line up the bankroll amounts, and failed. It's definitely broken.)

My decision to stand was a death sentence if Dannye and Surrender both play correctly behind me. If I stand, Dannye should double, Surrender should stand, and I can't advance. I'm locked out. Dannye did double, but I got a brief reprieve when Surrender doubled his hand and busted. (He had my chip count wrong, and thought I was ahead of him.) Gayle made an excellent play by surrendering her hand.

When the dealer made a hand, Gayle and Jeff advanced.

It's amazing how clarity about my situation often comes just after I make my decision. Once I waved off the hand, I realized that it was a really bad idea. Surrender was the correct play here. I lock Jeff out, and if the dealer makes a hand I have a nice shot at advancing, unless both Dannye and Gayle make good hands. Standing was a huge error. It seems so simple now!

 

[S. Yama]

Ken, I made at least four blunders in my twelve rounds and only because I was too busy (also playing poker) I didn’t bother to scrutinize my game as I should.

Going back to your play, I am not sure that surrender is the correct play.
If you surrender, we know that Dannye (more than 95% sure) will double his A3. Surender Y. proper play after your surrender is to surrender, too - automatically taking one spot away from you. Now, Gayle, as a good player that she is, has no choice but to stand hoping for dealer bust. If dealer bust you don’t advance (Dannye is), if dealer makes a hand Dannye has to lose giving you about 23% chance of advancing.
I would give a third to 50% chance for Surender Y. opting to double if Danny gets a good double. If Surender doubles and doesn’t bust, Gayle most likely doubles down. Your chance of advancing would be still below 30%.
Consider doubling your T5—you win more than 29% of the time and you push 4.4. Slightly less than half of your pushes will give you advancement, as it is more difficult for other players to better yours and dealer’s result. Total chance of advancing after double down should be about 31.5%.
A good old double down comes handy again.

Take care,
S. Yama

 

[KenSmith]

Oops, strike two

Yes, I see now that doubling was a better play.

I learned a lot this trip about how I play, and how I come to decisions. I hope to be able to improve on my decision-making process, and this round is an excellent example. I'm considering the following rule-of-thumb.

When in a spot where you're unsure how to proceed, consider first what happens if the dealer makes the most likely total. That is, in this case with a 6 up, see who advances if the dealer busts. If the dealer's upcard were an 8, consider what would happen if the dealer made 18. This at least allows you to focus your attention on the most likely outcome. Starting at that spot seems to be the most efficient use of time.

At this particular table, that would have been quite effective. I was confused because I was looking at too many possibilities at once, and did an ineffective job on all of them. If instead I had stopped reeling, and concentrated on what happens if the dealer busts, I think I could have easily seen the trouble caused if I stand.

So, what do you think? In a nutshell, the idea is: When simplifying a situation, start at the most likely dealer total, and work from there.

 

[jaytorr]

Ken, surrender *was* your best play

Hello,

I am a BJ tournament novice but my interest in tourneys has been sparked by the WSOB and the excellent analysis in this board.

Going back to your play, I am not sure that surrender is the correct play.
If you surrender, we know that Dannye (more than 95% sure) will double his A3. Surender Y. proper play after your surrender is to surrender, too - automatically taking one spot away from you. Now, Gayle, as a good player that she is, has no choice but to stand hoping for dealer bust. If dealer bust you don’t advance (Dannye is), if dealer makes a hand Dannye has to lose giving you about 23% chance of advancing.

I agree with S Yama's analysis of the most likely plays by your opponents. However, I think his math is incorrect because in this situation you will advance as long as Dannye doesn't win his double down (push is OK for you). Keep in mind that if Dannye doesn't win, Gayle automatically loses since she stood on 13. According to your DD chart you have ~47.5% chance of advancing by surrendering.

Regards,

jaytorr

 

[KenSmith]

You will advance as long as Dannye doesn't win his double down (push is OK for you). Keep in mind that if Dannye doesn't win, Gayle automatically loses since she stood on 13. According to your DD chart you have ~47.5% chance of advancing by surrendering.

I feel like a weathervane twisting in the wind on this one. Yet another correction, and an accurate one. It really is as simple as you describe. Assuming Dannye doubles, Surender surrenders, and Gayle stands, I advance if Dannye pushes or loses, which is the 47.5% number you quote.

Unusual for Yama, he incorrectly seems to have applied a conditional probability here, with this statement: "if dealer makes a hand Dannye has to lose giving you about 23% chance of advancing". An accurate assessment would eliminate any mention of the dealer, and read "Dannye has to lose or push his double, giving you a 47.5% chance of advancing."

Thanks for clearing that up jaytorr!

 

[S. Yama]

Oops, strike five.

Good eye, jaytorr.

"I don't trust anyone except my mother and my wife — in that order" – someone said, and R. Reagan would have added: verify.

It took me ten minutes to calculate it, fifteen to write about it, and today, I have spent two hours reconstructing how in the hell I got to that 23%.

True, surrender gives Ken 47.5% chance and is the best option.
Okay, my 23% was “the truth squared”. The correct number 47.5% squared makes 23%

S. Yama

 

[Sentry]

My Worst Play of the Week: The String Bet

I was playing in a mini-tournament, and had made it into the semi-finals. There were two players with a chip lead on me, with six hands to go. I decided to make a move, and bet a fourth of my chips- I lost. My act as a counter includes "steaming on tilt", and out of habit, I feigned anger and banged half my remaining chips doen on the felt. The dealer declared it a string bet and pulled seven chips off my stack, leaving me with one little lonely chip as my bet. He went on to bust, and paid the table, but the one chip win did me little good. Missing this bet sent me from calculation to desperation, and two hands later, I busted out trying to catch up.

The Moral: You can do all the math correctly and have your strategically perfect bet disqualified due merely to putting it into the circle improperly. Remember to assemble your bet and slide it into the circle. Never stack or slap your chips down in tournaments.

Sentry

 

[TXtourplayer]

String bets at LV Hilton

As long as you get your chips out before the next player acts, you can add to your stack. Ask Les Thacker if you don't believe me, he told me that during this years finals. A player cried string bet in round one on a playoff hand and Les ruled it is okay until the next player to your left make his/her bet then your frozen.