S. Yama's challenge/hustle for charity

S

S. Yama

Active Member
I would like to challenge up to 3 people from this board to a game. If you lose you should donate $25 to a charity, make it something for children, animals or to fight some diseases. If I lose I will donate $50 – and send Ken copies of canceled checks.

Let’s look at closing price of the market (Dow Jones) on Monday July 27th 2009. In the following days we will assign H for a higher closing market value, or L for a lower closing, compared to the previous day. Whoever takes on my challenge should post here specific sequence of three values (H or L). In response I will post my specific sequence of three values to each participant. There will be three pairs of sequncies, where each sequence has 1/8th chance of occuring for a random event. If your sequence happens before mine I donate fifty bucks to a charity. I am "risking" $150 for a good cause.

We will observe consecutive closings following July 27th’s until yours or mine hits.
For your information there are only eight possible sequencies that the market closings may create:
HHH, HHL, HLH, LHH, HLL, LHL, LLH, and LLL.

Any takers?

S. Yama
 
Sure, I'm in. I assume that July 27th is the first decision day, correct?

I'll pick "HHL".

Anyone else?
 
The game is on!

Okay Ken! The game is on!

Against Ken’s sequence of HHL I am picking sequence of LHH.
So, if LHH occurs first, before HHL, Ken is supposed to contribute to charity.
If HHL happens first I donate $50.

Thank you for playing.
S. Yama
 
The game is on!

Okay Poppa Goose! We have two matches going!

Against Poppa Goose's sequence of LHL I am picking sequence of LLH. This one will be a little bit tougher for me to beat.
So, if LLH occurs first, before LHL, Poppa Goose is supposed to contribute to charity.
If LHL happens first I donate $50.

Thank you for playing.
S. Yama
 
27th or 28th?

Hey Yama =)

I assume, as Ken, first decision day is 27th, I'll take HLL, If first decision day is 28th, then I'll take LLH.....

Biride :)
 
Muddy the waters. Stir the pot.

Yama said look at the closing on the 27th, in the following days assign the sequence. I interpert that to mean the sequence would be the 27th as the base and the next three following days the sequence, ie the 28th, 29th and 30th.

If we could clarify.

And then in any regard, I know Yama has figured this out, but just for giggles, Ill go HHH.
 
Ok ok

Guess I should have read Yama's post better "up to three people." Didn't mean to be a thread killer.
 
Thread Killer?

Noman,

You're not a thread killer but rather a fourth charity contributor which this thread encouraged. Advise me of the charity you contributed to and I will match your contribution to the charity of your choice.

I encorage all bjt.com members to also match Noman's contribution to a charity of your choice.
 
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Yep, the whole point here is the charitable contributions. Yama has the best of us on this deal, but his title should have tipped you off to that fact... It's the "challenge/hustle". :D
 
I am a sucker...

Noman you are in. I welcome and thank you for the bet. Against your sequence of HHH my pick is the same as against Ken- LHH. Good luck sir, lol.

If I were betting for money (to keep) I would take on as many bets, for as much money as possible, and as soon as possible.
With the exception for organized bets, where, for example, I could end up with pairs of bets, where somebody would bet my previous response. This would make me win one and lose the other, and since I “pay” twice as much for my loses, it would be not a good deal for me.
In our game for the charity, the more bets I accept the better chance that I will lose some, and we don’t want that either, do we?
Sweettebird made excellent bets; her bets in the context of other bets would almost surely made me to lose one out of four. Since she is already a big winner with me, officially I take three bets one from each: Ken, Poppa Goose, and Norm.

I used closing of the market compared to previous day to create something that we all have an easy access to, and is seemingly a random outcome. Since we have all bets in, we could start playing even tomorrow. But let’s stick with the original post, we will look at the closing number on Monday July 27th- closing on Tuesday 28th will create first H (higher closing) or first L (lower closing). Then we continue comparing Wednesday’s closing to Tuesday’s, and so on to create series of H’s and L’s until the specific sequences hit.

Since there are only eight possible sequences, and each has the same chance of occurring (for random binary outcome), and I pay double for my loses, I gave you a good deal.
I am such a sucker -- only for charity, lol.

S. Yama
 
At least you guys money is going to a charity

Bad bets! Now that the required number betters has signed up and Yama gets to choose a sequence after revealing yours he has a 66% to 88% chance of winning the bet depending on the sequence you chose.

Take a look at the Smith sequence HHL and Yama chose LHH.

There is a 1/8 chance that a Smith sequence will occur in the 1st 3 days and a 1/8 chance a Yama sequence will occur, so far it's even Stephen.

There is also a 1/8 chance the sequence HHH will occur. If this happens the next sequence will have to be another HHH sequence or HHL (a Smith sequence). Here Smith picks up another 1/8.

However for the other 5 sequences a Yama sequence must eventually occur (try it and see) before a Smith sequence can occur. A 5/8 gain for Yama; thus Yama wins 6/8 to Smith 2/8, a 75% probability.

Even if Smith had chosen the Yama sequence of LHH then Yama would have countered with LLH and have a 66+% chance to win for reasons similar but different from above.

The worst sequences to choose is HHH or LLL. If HHH is chosen then Yama chooses LHH for an 88% chance of winning. (For LLL then HLL is chosen).


Now you guys can try this game on your friends and make money.


..............................BlueLight
 
Market up, but not for me..

Today was the first day of our contest and the market compared to official closing on Monday closed up higher. That, for our game of three letter sequences, generated first letter H.
Damn!
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t have short positions in the market and wish our economy prosper making market going up and up. But in our game the first day was very important.
Generating L on the first day alone would guarantee me win with both Ken and Norm, and would give me 2/3rd chance to win with Poopa Goose – seems incredible, hmm?
But the reality is (and I can’t change it, lol) that after first letter H my chances of winning went way down.
It is 50/50 with Ken, and though we are looking for three letter sequence we will know that I win if tomorrow is L, and I lose if it is H.
My chances against Poopa Goose are still at 2/3rds. Norm’s actions being a real underdog 1 to 7 before the game started, rose now to 1 to 3. Bannanas start looking better every day, now.
I need that L tomorrow.

S. Yama
 
Congrats Yama, although I was hoping for an upset! After fighting my way to a coin flip chance of beating you, I lost the coin flip today when the market went down again. :(

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that the market will not oscillate HLHLHL forever and leave our wager in limbo!

I doubled up on my contribution, and donated $50 online to the American Cancer Society.

Go Cancer Research!
 
Money well spent....

In keeping with the "charitable spirt" of my teammates, I too will up my contribution to $50.00 for the "ALS" (Lou Gehrig's Disease) foundation...S. Yama, your challenge has initiated a successful "end result". Well done!
 
Hlhh

On Friday Dow closed higher, creating H in our game.
After four days the closings were HLHH, thus giving three-letter sequence LHH and making me the official winner in game with Ken and Norm.
Guys thank you for playing and the charity contributions.
Since Poopa Goose and I need L for as opener of our sequences we have to wait a bit longer for the resolution (my chances being still 2/3rds).
Win or lose I will contribute $50 to ASPCA.


S. Yama
 
How it works:

How it works.

The idea for this game came from “Penney’s game”-named after its inventor Walter Penney.
It is game where longer sequence of binary results, be it tail/heads, higher/lower, black/red, etc., will be generated. Players chose sequence of three or more elements. The player whose sequence appears first wins the bet. The player selecting sequence after another player revealed his choice has a distinctive edge. For any given sequence of length three or longer, though each sequence has the same chance of occurring, it is possible to find one that has higher likelihood of occurring first than the revealed one. This property is called nontransitive.

The odds for the player with betting position are as follow:
First selection...........response..................odds
HHH..(or LLL)............LHH..(or HLL).............7 to 1
HHL..(or LLH)............LHH..(or HLL).............3 to 1
HLH..(or LHL)............HHL..(or LLH).............2 to 1
HLL..(or LHH)............HHL..(or LLH).............2 to 1

Actually, I see a very simple way to remember how to create responses. Just look at the first two letters of the known sequence and make your response by adding an opposite letter in front of it if the first two letters were of the same type, or add the same type if the first two letters were not of the same type.
Go on an make some money- for the charity only! lol

S. Yama
 
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