September Contest

S

S. Yama

Active Member
Hey guys!

Poker tournaments were kind to me lately, so I decided to reciprocate some of my newly acquired wealth.
Here is a new thing: privately sponsored (no corporations involved) bj tournament strategy contest with the main (and only) prize of gourmet buffet at LVH for one, or other equally exquisite high quality dinning experience.

You need to answer three questions related to situation that occurred in August Hilton monthly qualifier and had one of the best tournament players involved, and a member of our BjT.com to boot.

Last hand, bets 100 to 2,500, surrender, cards dealt face up.
P1..........P2...........P3.............P4
7,950......7,450.......6,500........11,400

Rank bet amount from best to worst for P1 with two different assumptions
1) other players are all experts
2) other players are below average in skills

Bets are:
A) 400 B) 900 C) 2,300 D) 2,500

[Answers could look like (no hints here): 1- A, C, B, D 2- A, B, D, C or 1- C, A, B, D 2- A, C, D, B ]

In reality players had bet and received cards as follow:

Dealer showing: 9

Player.....P1.........P2..........P3...........P4
Bnkrl......7,950.....7,450......6,500......11,400
Bet........2,300.....2,500......2,500........2,500
Cards......6,5........5,4.........10,6..........10,2

3) Task three: rank the best play for P1 against average players.
A) Double down, B) hit once, C) hit to 15, D) hit to 17

Additional comments welcomed.

S. Yama
 
My Answer

Against expert players my bet ranks are B, A, C, D
Against average players my bet ranks are C, D, B, A
Against average players my play ranks are A, B, D, C
 
I would

Great work S. Yama, very good question. This will be fun to work on.

Without doing the math I think I would try it this way.

#1. A, D, C, and B. (with expert players I have to take the only possible lock
and that is 2nd low with a dealer sweep any other way I can open to
many doors for the others.

#2. C, A, D, and B (play for high and chance to trap for low)

#3. B - If I hit ten I force both B and C to DD. B - has total nine vs. dealers
9, so less say B DD and gets a ten, the chances are the dealer has 19 for
a push. C - has hard 16 enough said. If I catch crap card with a DD I
leave the door open for both B and C to take low on me.

I'll look forward to your anwsers and the percentages for each play.
 
Perhaps surprisingly, my bet choice here doesn't change based on the skill level of the other players. In both cases, vs experts or average players, I prefer 2nd high to 2nd low, and my rank of the bets is:

D,C,B,A

At the table, it is quite likely I would have actually bet C ($2300). With the lack of time pressure, I think $2500 is superior, just because of the extra value of 3x$2500 vs 3x$2300 in the low-probability chance that 3 bets become important.

I like this play against experts, but B has a lot of appeal as well. Against average players, my choice of the big bet is more clear, for the very reason displayed by the players in the example. In many cases, they'll just match up with my big bet behind me, giving me both second high and second low, which is all I can ask from this spot.

As for the play of the hand, I like A, the double down.

Recapping:
1) D,C,B,A
2) D,C,B,A
3) A

No subtlety in my answers!
 
Great question S. Yama!

3 have responed and we have 3 differant answers. That is what I love about BJ tournaments and what drive me crazy sometimes, you don't know which is the best play until after the hand is done.

Sure they're is a higher percintage play, but we all know that that isn't always the winning play.

I am looking forward to your answers (S. Yama) and the math to support them in order of highest percinage plays.
 
ok I'll try my hand .............
#1......B A C D

#2......D C B A

#3......B C D A
 
I wasn't going to reply but....

I figure that you only learn by not being afraid to embarrass yourself!

Since I don't know enough to distinguish different bets between expert and below average players my answers to both 1 & 2 are the same: C, D, B, A
C to have the best chance of protecting the low against P2 & P3 who almost certainly must bet max while allowing my double down to cover P2's DD.

I've agonized over the proper play and in all fairness I would probably have DD in the heat of the moment seeing the 11 and begged for a 10. That said my answer to the question is D,A,B,C because I believe that by hitting to 17 you force P2 to double and P3 to improve because he can't surrender into 2nd low. Now P2 could surrender into 2nd low after you but....if P1 DD and ends up stiff, my belief is that more than likely he will end up third.

S. Yama, thank you so much for your technical contribution to this board.
 
Embarrass Yourself???

Not hardly. Excellent answers. I'm fairly confident Yama's math will prove you have the bets in proper order. As for playing the hand... I hope he finds that the proper play is to double, because that's what I did.


Walt
 
Everybody is a winner

Thank you for participating in this contest.
I think all participants are winners.
I hope you had fun – I had. I am sure we all had become better players by exercising our minds.
I just wished more people expressed their opinions. Yeah, A., B., Dave, Joe, Pete, and others hope to hear from you next time.
All participants M., Tx., K, S., G., and W. win some exciting dinning experience and the winner of the most points for the right answers pays the tip.
(Once we agree on correct answers, I plan of assigning 5 pc for all four choices in right order, 4 pc for first and second right, and 3 pc for first right or first and second reversed right.)

S. Yama

P. S.
I don’t have a miracle-maker simulator where I could punch in the numbers and it would spit out one hundred percent accurate answer. My answers are combination of common sense, some CA, some “known” numbers and more common sense.
I will present my opinions in separate posts. Please, feel free to disagree.
 
My answer to #3

I am a little late to this thread, but since the answer to #3 has not been posted yet, I'll give it a try.

Against good players, best choice is doubling down.

DD advances around 57% (all DD wins and most of the pushes).

Hitting is problematic, since even if you hit to 21, players 2 and 3 can DD and you still will not advance if 2 out of the 3 remaining players win. If you stand stiff, you are in bad shape since P2 can surrender, P3 will DD and P4 stands, and your only hope is that both P3 AND the dealer bust. Don't have hard numbers on this but my best guess is that hitting should give ~45% chance of advancing.

Answer: A,D,C,B

On an interesting note, if you surrender, P2 and P3 probably DD, but P4 will not DD. This should give you ~43% chance of advancing which may be better than some of the other options such as hitting once.

jaytorr
 
S.yama You Can Do Better Than That

I would like to give my answer to S.Yama question but with all his money he could do better than the buffet at the HILTON for the correct answer.Come on Yama raise the ante a little LOL
 
To complex?

I just posted answer to question #3.

I guess it should be a lesson for me to post problems that have less complex solutions.
The correct answer depends not only on subjective gauging of other players but also it is rather complicated and intricate situation that some may rightfully call a big mess.

It seems that most often the correct answer would be A-B-C-D, though, in some instances B may be the best play.
Based on the first two questions Swog gets the most points – congratulations.
As I said before, everybody that participated is a winner.
Let’s indulge our senses with fine wines and incomparable dinning sensations at some of the more compelling Vegas establishments - choosing and courtesy of Joep, of course.

On a more serious note let me know if my posts are too complicated, too technical, too…whatever.

Thanks and see you next month,
S. Yama
 
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