Stand or Split & Double ?

PlayHunter

PlayHunter

Active Member
BR2 2700 chips act first and bet 500 and receives 2 queens.

BR1 2924 chips act second and bet 500 and receives 11. Dealer up card 6.

The game rules does not allow resplit.

What BR2 should do in this case: Split and then Double on the lowest hand (if stiff) or simply Stand and hope for a swing/half swing ?
 
Good One!

This is a tough one, for me anyway. Both players have options to get money on the table. BR1 is in a very strong position because he can respond to whatever BR2 decides to do.

If BR2 stands, BR1 can hit once for a strong chance of correlating.

If BR2 splits, BR1 can evaluate his resulting hands and how to best correlate. I think that BR2 pretty much has to get 3 bets working, otherwise BR1 can easily cover him by doubling. My guess would be that BR2 should double his first hand if it is 14 or less. If he does not double his first hand, he should probably double any stiff second hand. One thing BR2 can absolutely not do is to leave both hands undoubled and stiff. This would give BR1 a lock by doubling.

I think that, as BR2, I would split in this situation. Getting 3 bets working would give me a success rate at least as high as the odds of the dealer busting which would probably be better than the odds of swinging BR1 by standing.
 
gronbog said:
My guess would be that BR2 should double his first hand if it is 14 or less. If he does not double his first hand, he should probably double any stiff second hand.
Click to expand...

In this version when a player split a hand, his both following hands are dealt one vizible card so he know what he got on both hands before he has to act.

I opted to split, received a 5 on the first hand and a 10 on the second hand. I then stand on both, which now re-thinking I believe was VERY wrong, worse than standing with 20 on the initial hand ! I believe I should have doubled even in hard 17 after split while I was receiving a 10 on the second hand ?
 
Split and double or resplit

If BR2 stands on his total 20 vs. dealer 6 then BR1 can hit once his 11.
BR1 wins his hand and advances (from Ken’s double down table, s17) 63.6% and when he pushes with 20 or 21 -4.4% of the 6.66% total pushes. Total BR2’s chances are 32%.

If BR2 splits tens and has only two bets his situation worsen as BR1 can double. The only improvements for BR2 is if hit hits at least one hand to 21 and the other is at least 20 and the dealer has 20, or both hands 21 and the dealer 21 and BR1 double is less than 21 (less than half percent chance}. But 84% of the times his chances are worse than standing.

If BR2 splits and tries to win 3 bets then BR1 can not catch him.
I think the playing strategy to get out 3 bets may be somewhat confusing. He needs to resplit tens if possible or double one of the hands, even if it is a stiff. Of the 13 possible second cards to first split hand another Ten or Ace are of so much greater value that we can’t just double on the card that is better than median card, which would be 7.
We should resplit Tens, double on Ace or deuce and stand on all the other second dealt cards, hoping for a better double/split with the next hand. If the next card to split Tens is 3 then it has almost identical value for standing or doubling (~31% chance of success).
Total value of splitting TT and winning 3 bets is about 39%.

S. Yama
 
Last edited:
no resplits

I missed the rule of no resplitting.
This changes BR2’s advancement chances with optimal play to about 35%.
Also, any dealer’s 21 eliminates BR2 standing on TT, so the correct number, for BR2 advancement when he stands is 26%.

The described situation offers a few very interesting strategy plays.
For example, BR2 should double first hand if it is around 14 or less (as gronbog suggested) and stand on higher two-cards and then double the next hand, except when his totals are 18-20, 19-19, or better, and the 20 –17 is a close play for standing or doubling on 17.
Also if the first hand is 20 and the second is Ten-Ace doubling is a better play, and so is doubling on the second hand up to 16 (17 being a close decision).

If BR2 has three bets out BR1 should not double but hit to at least 18 and one point higher then BR2 lower hand. One exception is when BR1 double is 17 and other hand is 17 or less than BR1 hits to 17.

S. Yama

PS
Added next day.
There are more right plays in response to BR2 three-bet than I originally posted. Anyone wants to fill it up?
 
Last edited:
Nobody discussed the value of doubling for less on the first hand. You could double for 225 and see what happens. If you bust you could double on anything for the full amount which would net you a 275 win if you win the second hand after busting the first. You are down 224 chips. The double for 225 covers his double if you win both hands and BR1 also wins and the 275 win (should it happen that you lose the double for less and win the full double) covers his push or loss. Of course losing the first hand means BR1 will most likely not double his hand but may be forced to hit out if you make a hand on your split hand o which should suit you fine. I think this will give you a slightly larger chance to pass BR1. What do you experts think?
 
Last edited:
Chairman said:
Nobody discussed the value of doubling for less on the first hand. You could double for 225 and see what happens.
Click to expand...
Interesting. Doubling for 225 gives you the value of 3 bets working while at the same time giving you additional options should you lose the doubled hands. Nice observation. Without running any numbers this seems like it must an improvement from a logical point of view.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top