Thought Process ?

[slim100_us]

Ken,

This is a Question for you or any other expert tournament player. I guess I am wondering if you have a thought process that you go through in your head, when there is say (ten hands to go, five hands to go, two hands to go, and then finally the last hand.) I no from reading Standford Wongs book, that going into the final hand you want to be BR*(have a bankroll that will advance). So when I am sitting on the final hand I ask myself-

1. Am I BR* ? (yes or no)
2. If yes then who is on the button,
3. etc.

Please let me no your thought process you go through to determine how much you need to bet.


Thanks

Slim100

 

[KenSmith]

This is the core question of tournament strategy, and a good answer could fill a book, and will hopefully!

Still, I'll issue a feeble attempt at an answer:

With my typical approach, my decision making process is all about recognizing the dollar deficit I have from the lead and each bet sizing decision is calculated in an attempt to bridge that gap. If you're aware of the deficit amount, you can more easily see the effect of bet sizes ahead of you. For example, if you know the leader is $200 ahead of you and see him bet $190, this is one example of your train of thought:

"OK, he's covered a push by me, even if he loses."

"Hmmm, I can take a high over him with a bet of at least $395."

"Well, there are still a few hands to go, and a loss of $395 would be devastating to me right now. I think I'll wait another hand to see what happens."

"Maybe I should make a minimum bet of $5 this hand."

"Wait, if he loses and I win $5 that doesn't help. I should bet at least $15 just in case that happens. Losing $15 is not much worse than losing $5. It's worth the extra ten bucks in case I swing him."

"OK, that's got my situation against the leader. Let's take a look at third place, and see what his bet does."

"He's bet enough to pass my current bankroll by $20."

"OK, I'll bet $25 this hand, and see what happens."

For those players who wonder what the heck we're thinking when we take so long to decide our bet amounts, that's a typical example. And this is a pretty simple situation.