Tough Decision

[hopinglarry]

I didn't go into other things about this bet. but if it seems that playing for the high should be the way to go then I could correct the initial bet by doubling for a smaller amount such as 2.5 up to bring the initial bet to 302.5 up.

Even though it is not part of the decision I do not favor BR4's bet. I pretty sure that I would have gone ahead and bet 500 on his hand on the hope of a BJ to put me in the lead going to the last hand. I do not like to be in the position of Tim perhaps being able to virtually lock me out and Gronbog playing behind me on the last hand. Of course, then Gronbog would probably agonize a while and might change his bet.

From the money amounts neither BR4 or Gronbog doubled their hands. I don't know what the percentages are, but looking at the bets if Tim wins they are looking at best with a 2 or 3 way playoff (without one of them getting a BJ on the last hand).

This making of early bets may be a reason that keeps me off the final table

 

[gronbog]

Yes, I should have definitely doubled. By not doubling, if I won, then I could still theoretically tie Tim on the final hand. But if I won a double then I could theoretically beat him.

 

[London Colin]

As Gronbog said, it was a tough decision (or so I thought initially) and I definitely agonized on it a bit. Considering the situation (Dealer having a 4), the odds were good that both Gronbog and BR4 would win the hand. That would result in them being tied @ $800. After analyzing the situation, I realized that if I lost the hand (hitting or doubling) I would be in a must win (others must lose) either way on the last hand If I lost the straight bet, I would be @ $725. If I lost the double, I would be at $425. If everyone lost, BR4 would be at $400 & Gronbog would be at $750. Once I realized that I had enough left to pass either player with my win and their loss on the last hand (if I lost after hitting -or- doubling), I went for the double. (I thought at the time that it was a lock opportunity, but it was only a guarantee of a push if Gronbog and/or BR 4 won both of the last two hands). As was mentioned in an earlier post, a $302.50 bet would have been the best bet. Either way, there was so much power in winning the double, it ended up being a no brainer (but, only after going through all of the scenarios).

It's funny, I went through the same reasoning and arrived at the same conclusion, but then confused myself into believing it wasn't quite that straightforward. I made the mistake of thinking that there could be scenarios in which Gronbog would take just the low against you, rather than both high and low (basically, forgetting that he was acting after you).

There is one drawback to losing the double, compared to losing the single bet - you can't double down to take the high on the final hand as an alternative to playing for the swing. But I'm sure the upside of possibly winning the double must outweigh that.

 

[gronbog]

To me the key is the strength of the possible lock. To me a lock is so valuable that I am willing to take more risk than normal in order to obtain one.