UBT Blackjack Legends Episode

B

BJ Kid

New Member
I am posting here first time. I am watching here since the first UBT show.
After watching the LEGENDS SHOW about 4 days ago I was keep checking the site to get the answer to my puzzle.
The last hand of the heads up game was between Ken E. and Anthony C.
Ken was leading with more than 80,000. Anthony bets secretly (95,000) and Ken bet 60,000.
I am considering myself less than average player and agree with Ken's bet (even dough I think there must be a better bet).
Cards were delt - hard 18 for Anthony, pair of 6's for Ken and 2 for dealer.
Anthony stood with 18, and now it is Ken's turn.
This is where I get confused - why surrender?
In my opinion if he stands with 12, he wins always except dealer's 17.
If he SURRENDERS, he gives Anthony dealer's bust also - HUGE!

I DO NOT accept the fact that a player with titles like WORLD BLACKJACK CHAMPION and BLACKJACK LEGEND, AUTOR OF THE BEST SELLING BOOK "PLAY TO WIN" - can make that kind of mistake.
There must be something else involved here. I don't think we understand the game that deeply like Kenny.

Only thing I came up with was if Anthony bet less that 50,000 that Ken could lock him out. But what is the probability for Anthony to bet less than 50,000?
To have a little chance to win, Anthony had to bet at least more than their Difference (this is my opinion and Anthony's bet proves that).

I like to here some opinions from you guys, I know we have World Class Players here who can answer to this, probably simple for you, question.

BJ Kid
 
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Interesting question...

...and it'd be great to here some responses to it. I didn't/can't watch the show but the way you've described it it does sound like an unusual play. I can only imagine that Ken thought he had some sort of read on Anthony and that's why he played it that way.

Anybody got any idea's?

Cheers

reachy
 
I haven't watched it yet = TIVO. Too many good football games.

Maybe this will help - from playubt.com:

Last Hand
With only three hands left till the final elimination on hand 25, Ken Einiger has more than a max-bet lead on Anthony Curtis. Ken increases the lead to $349,500 to $163,500 with two hands to go, but Anthony doubles up on hand 24. On hand 25, Ken is still ahead and bets second, but Anthony has a secret bet left. The secret bet is powerful and causes a misread by Ken that gives Anthony the advantage. But when the dealer draws a 6 for 21, Ken beats the odds and becomes the first Legends champion.

http://ww.playubt.com/ubt_show_epiguideaftair_recap.aspx?eps_id=50
 
what did he think?

I'm really curious as to what Ken thought Anthony had done. If Anthony had bet more than 50K then a surrender makes it a coin toss since 18 wins against dealer 2 outright 48.7% of the time. He surely can't have imagined that Anthony bet less than that since with Ken having more than a 1/2 max bet lead he doesn't have to give Anthony the option of taking the low, so he's got to assume that Anthony will adopt an aggressive Curts Revenge type strategy. If Anthony bets more than the difference then, as BJ Kid says, Ken gives Anthony the dealer bust by surrendering.

My small TBJ brain can't compute....

Cheers

Reachy
 
Another Question about this hand

The commentary on the show made a big deal about the fact that none of the secret bets were used before the final hand. If so, why didn't Einiger use his secret bet on the last hand? Admittedly, it doesn't provide him as much value as Curtis got from using his secret bet, but it still seems to be worth using to me.
 
Just after that table, Kenny explained that he did indeed put Anthony on a very small bet. At the time, I didn't like that explanation at all.

However, while watching the show, Anthony's quick play of the hand, apparently without considering doubling, did make it seem that he didn't have a big bet working. As unlikely as that bet would be, I can now understand why Kenny considered it a real possibility.

I still don't like the surrender play, but I dislike it much less than I did before. If Kenny still had his secret bet, he should have used it. I can't recall whether he did or did not, though I do remember the commentary mentioned above.
 
KenE just plain screwed up

BJ Kid got it right. Irregardless of what KenE thought Anthony's bet was, with standing his 12, KenE would win the table as long as the dealer did not hit to exactly 17. With a dealer showing a 2, that will only happen 13% to 14% of the time leaving KenE with a probability of winning the table of 86% to 87% of the time (unless Anthony bet less than $20,000 in which case KenE had a lock by just standing). This move also removes any guess work as to Anthony's bet.

When you are in the heat of battle, picking the right move is not as easy as hindsight after the play. This applies to the seasoned player as well as a ploppy. KenE got lucky by the dealer not busting. I don't believe he had any great strategy in mind when he surrendered. It was guess work, plain and simple. But he didn't have to guess. If you screw up, you screw up. But the lucky yellow jacket saved the day. That's the long and short of it as I see it.
 
Sounds like lots of luck for the Former World Champ...

We all make mistakes as the clock is ticking... at the final hand that clock TICKS fairly loud and much faster than normal...lol

I didnt see the show but it sounds like Ken did a great job building a good lead that allowed for a mistake...thus showing the importance of BR1.

Trying to put on the shoes of the quickly needed decision...I certainly would have used the secret bet...if for no other reason than to gain extra time...if that secret bet was in fact not available then I think I would have hit...and that would have probably been a worse decision ...I dont know....but my thought process is that anything but a 10 which is only coming 33% of the time or so....67% chance to improve the hand and then stand no matter what I got.

It seems that Curtis would have no chance with a small bet so there was no reason to consider that....I love the trick of betting fast though...I do that to make others think I have bet one of the buttons...min, max or half...thats if I have my $hip together and am playing ahead of the power curve.

So Ken got lucky....but he also had a huge lead built up and that had to take some work..so....can you call it luck?

Dang...I sure wish I could watch all these shows...I just missed too many of them.
 
Reassuring

Being a noobie I find it reassuring that even the best in the world make mistakes. It's very easy for us to sit here and make comments but I know that I've made far worse plays, almost every day in fact, and who knows what goes through your head on the final hand of The Legends of BJ competition! And like Rando says Ken built up a massive lead up until that point so that earns him some slack.

I realise you'd have to be some kind of savant to be able to do the maths in your head in the time alloted but here are the numbers:

If Ken where to put Anthony on a bet big, enough to cover a push then:
Stand - 87%
Hit - 80%
Surrender - 51.33%
If Anthony were put on a small bet but one that could win a swing:
Stand - 87%
Hit - 81%
Surrender - 51.33%

Cheers

Reachy
 
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