Show Recap part 2
Hand 19:
Viktor.........$ 87,000.....$1000....3773
Anthony........$ 84,000.....$10000...AK
Jason..........$ 42,000.....$42000...K2Q
*Rick..........$ 85,250.....$1000....2Q4T
Ken............$ 95,500.....$1000....A45
Dealer A225
Anthony bet just a little short of first high, probably thinking that even the small additional risk wasn't worth it with hands to go and two advancing. Besides, he's probably still reeling from the tension of the last few hands. I paused the show at this point to decide whether Anthony would insure his blackjack. I was right, he did. All-in Jason dodged one bullet when Deanna didn't have the blackjack, but his tournament ended this hand anyway.
Whenever a seat empties at the table, there's usually a change in the position advantage as well. In this case, we hear a sarcastic Viktor 'celebrating' the fact that he'll now be on the final hand button. Ken's gotta love this. Now he has both the lead and last bet. But this is now a tight match, with only $8500 separating first and last place. (Matt says "less than 12 grand separates first from last". I'm guessing he transposed some digits in Viktor and Ken's totals to get that number.)
Hand 20:
Viktor.........$ 87,000.....$10500...84
Anthony........$ 94,000.....$2000....Q9 (Ins $1000)
Rick...........$ 84,250.....$10500...55 (Ins $5000)
*Ken...........$ 95,500.....$1000....8T
Dealer AK
Viktor shoots for first place, and Anthony opts to take no risk and see what happens instead. He makes virtually a minimum bet, but with an extra chip to pass a possible push by Ken. This is a useful idea to emulate when you're looking to coast through a hand. Often you can find opportunities where betting an extra chip or two can be helpful.
I don't know the story for Anthony's insurance bet here, and it may be that he has Ken's chip count wrong and believes he's moving into the lead. I don't like Rick's initial bet here, and I really don't like insuring it either, though I suppose it's debatable to move up on Viktor. It works, when Deanna has the blackjack. Anthony is now trailing Ken by only $500.
Hand 21:
*Viktor........$ 76,500.....$40000...87 Surr
Anthony........$ 94,000.....$10000...3734
Rick...........$ 83,750.....$30500...KT (Insure $15000)
Ken............$ 94,500.....$15000...T9 (Insure $7500)
Dealer A489
I'm going to go completely overboard this hand with speculation on better bets and plays. It's worth reiterating here that it's tough enough to come up with these plays with a calculator, plenty of time, and no cameras and lights. At the table it's nearly impossible. But this hand just has too much potential interest to skip the in-depth analysis.
I like only one bet at this table, Anthony's. Viktor's invites trouble in several ways. Making this bet from the button virtually guarantees that at least one player will cover it on the high. Also, overbetting half his bank doesn't accomplish anything here. I'd prefer to wait a hand to take this kind of risk. If I had to make a move this hand, I'd be reluctant to risk more chips than it takes to barely squeak into first place. Given Ken's numerous $1000 bets, $20500 would be a strong choice, but I like $1000 better now.
Anthony's bet is both simple and powerful. He bets his lead over Rick, which insures that any move by Rick is going to be expensive and risky.
Rick needs a $33K bet if he wants to cover Viktor. He takes almost as much risk, but ends up with second high instead of first (and no guarantee of that with Ken playing behind him.)
Ken should have picked a side... Either match up with Anthony or cover the high. He does neither, choosing instead to have second low and third high on this hand. There's an interesting "flex bet" available here with a bet of $20,000. It covers Rick's win, but he can also surrender back into first low if Anthony busts. His bet of $15K gets half the "flex" (the surrender half), but actually doesn't accomplish much that $10K wouldn't, and $10K doesn't require the surrender to have first low.
Once the cards are dealt, Viktor has more trouble. Although 15vA sucks, Max is right about the surrender being a bad idea. The determining factor is that last-place Viktor can take the lead if he just gets paid on this hand. Play it out.
Now I'm really getting picky, but here are some insurance plays that would have been awesome to see. Realize that insurance plays are among the most complicated to figure, and these would be tough to do at the table. Tough, but possible, as you'll see.
Consider what happens if Rick insures for $10K instead of $15K. If Deanna doesn't have the blackjack, he'll still have the high over Anthony. He could arrive at this figure by knowing how much "extra" money he has bet. In this case, that's $10K over Anthony. That's how much he can afford to insure and not give back the high. (If Ken insures fully behind him, he'll get the high over Ken as a bonus as well.)
Once Rick takes almost full insurance, Ken needs to insure as well or Rick will pass him if the dealer has blackjack. Ken knows that, and thus he insures. But, he has a better play if he insures for less. He only needs to insure for $2000 to cover Rick if the dealer has it, and he also has "extra" chips bet compared to Anthony. Insuring for anything between $2000 and $5000 is perfect.
OK, back to the real world, where Anthony has taken the lead.
Hand 22:
Viktor.........$ 56,500.....$27500...82 Dbl 5
*Anthony.......$104,000.....$10000...AJ
Rick...........$ 99,250.....$10500...22 Split -> 275 / 275 / 29 Dbl T
Ken............$102,000.....$1000....TA
Dealer 34K
Anthony chooses a mid-range bet from the button. (How about $8000 with the surrender option?) Rick matches up, which is a poor choice here. However, it still looks OK after Ken bets $1000 behind him. Ken continues to give players free shots at passing him, including Viktor, who I would assume would bet $50K here. Viktor splits his money instead but gets $55K working anyway with a double. A loss eliminates him, as he's down to $1500. Anthony's looking good, especially for a guy who was all-in twice earlier.
Hand 23:
Viktor.........$ 1,500.....$1500....KA
Anthony........$119,000.....$20000...6TQ
*Rick..........$ 99,250.....$24500...8334
Ken............$103,500.....$20000...82J
Dealer 9K
Ken again doesn't cover the high, this time being short by only $250. Rick chooses not to double, although I think the double is a better play if you assume that Ken will take the basic strategy double behind you. Again, Rick's play ends up being better after Ken misplays the hand. (If Ken realized the problem, a double for $500 would have been sufficient to fix it.) Anthony has better bet choices here, but he basically just falls prey to the age-old problem of getting worse cards than your opponent.
Hand 24:
Viktor.........$ 3,750.....$3500....3TA7
Anthony........$ 99,000.....$15000...TA
Rick...........$ 74,750.....$37000...2J Dbl ($29000) 3
*Ken...........$123,500.....$30000...A7
Dealer 77K
Anthony leaves the door open for Rick, but Rick doesn't walk through. Anthony could have bet as much as $24K outright, or better yet, enough to cover Rick both ways with the surrender option. (Anything between $26K and $48K.)
But Rick is still intent on making his own spot difficult, and doesn't take the offered second high this hand. Interestingly, if Rick had made a better bet, he probably would have busted this hand. Instead, he makes an excellent double. Note that he also held back $8750 to stay ahead of Viktor if he loses the double, which is a nice bottom-feeding play, the sort with which I am all too familiar.
Hand 25:
*Viktor........$ 7,250.....$7000....A69J
Anthony........$121,500.....$40000...7J Dbl 3
Rick...........$140,750.....$32500...9A
Ken............$153,500.....$30000...826
Dealer QQ
This is a well-bet final hand. Anthony's situation is grim... third place and effectively on the button. $40K is a good bet, giving him as many ways to win as possible. Rick's bet is darned effective. He can surrender to beat a push, yet he can double if Anthony doubles. (Here's a case where matching Anthony's bet would be a worse choice, because of the push/surrender. Think of an Anthony 20 and a Rick 16 against a dealer 10, a disastrous hand if Rick had bet $40K.) Ken's bet holds unbet chips over Anthony's bankroll and bets enough to cover everything that might happen.
So much for the betting. How about the play? Anthony must double of course. (Remember, his card is face down, so Rick and Ken don't know if he busted or not.) Rick should double as well, and if he does he is virtually assured to finish better than Anthony. If Rick doubles, Anthony's ways to beat Rick are very limited.. Anthony must draw an Ace thru 4, Rick's card must be worse than Anthony's, and Anthony must push or beat the dealer, but the dealer also cannot bust. That's a tall order.
If they both double, I suppose Ken should make it unanimous. As it stands though, after Rick does not double, Ken has no need for the extra chips. A more interesting question is should Ken hit the 16? I don't know the answer.
Anthony's outcome here might be the worst beat of the tournament, though Joep might disagree. Anthony catches a three on his hard 17, but a push isn't enough to be among the top two. Rick and Ken advance to the final table.
