Week Six, World Series of Blackjack 2

KenSmith

KenSmith

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Week Six:
Tyrone Jackson, Anthony Curtis, David Page, Rick Swogger, Erica Schoenberg
Friday Feb 25, 10 PM premiere, 1 AM encore
Sat Feb 26, 8 PM
Sun Feb 27, 7 PM
Tue Mar 1, 10 PM

This week's table features at least three participants here at BJT: anthony curtis, TheLegend (David Page), and swog (Rick Swogger). Tyrone and Erica, if you're here, let us know.

My recap of this show will be delayed for several days since I'm traveling until Tuesday. Meanwhile, post your thoughts on this episode here.
 
Ken, do you see the un-cut version or are you watching what the rest of us see on GSN? The reason I ask is that Anthony revealed a mistake that was made and corrected before the final hand. He could only reveal how that impacted his own strategy...not how it impacted the others at the table.

GSN did cover up the mistake very well!
 
The only ones really affected were Tyrone and me. Since I was the leader all the way, the others were keying off my chip count and not really impacted by the presence of the extra chips. In the analyses at LVA, I try to highlight tournament concepts, which is why I talk about the mistake. The reality is, dealer mistakes are part of the game and you have to be prepared for them. In the majority of tournaments, a mistake like that would not have been caught or corrected, and if you don't catch it yourself, you have to deal with it. That's why ultimately it was MY mistake. Due to the nature of this tournament (cameras, record-keeping, etc.), it was discovered and corrected. At that point, it was necessary for everyone on the table to adjust their mindset and play on. You simply have to play under the conditions that exist.
 
Thank you for the clarification Anthony. Not being a tournament player (yet!) I am very interested in all the nuances of play under those conditions.
 
Show Recap part 1

Although this is the sixth episode shown, this table was actually the first one played in World Series of Blackjack 2005.

In seat one tonight is Tyrone Jackson, a real estate developer from Chicago. Tyrone: "I like to be in the mix all the time; I want to be in the action; I want people to be talking about me... So I'll probably be mixing it up a little bit."

Next up is one of the big names for this event, Anthony Curtis. Anthony is the publisher of Las Vegas Advisor and he's a serious tournament competitor with several monster wins over the years. He also has one of the strongest tournament strategies named after him. "Curt's Revenge" is described in Stanford Wong's book. Anthony, on how TV can affect the play: "I think that a lot of people are going to truncate their potential, by worrying about the fact that they're on TV."

In seat three is David Page, a regular on the national tournament circuit who resides in Maryland. His nickname is 'Legend', and he posts here at BJT as TheLegend. He tells us about how flexible a hand of 17 is: "I can hit it, I can double it, I can surrender it. So, if I have 17, tell the dealer to give me a minute to think about what my options are going to be."

Another BJT regular is in seat four. "Swog" is Rick Swogger, a Texan who owns several dry cleaners and has been hitting the tournament game hard for the last few years. Don't let his quote from the intro fool you... "I don't take any risk, especially when playing cards. There's no reason for risk." Well, when it comes to tournament risk, he'll do whatever it takes.

Our last competitor tonight is certainly the best looking of this crew. Erica Schoenberg, a kickboxing instructor from Akron Ohio may be sharper than you think. But she also knows exactly what extra weapon she brings to the table: "I will be pulling out all the stops, oh yeah. The tops will be low-cut, the makeup will be sassy, as will I."

Hand 1:
*Tyrone.....$100,000......$1000....64 Dbl 4
Anthony.....$100,000......$1000....99 Split 92 Dbl 8 / 98
David.......$100,000......$2000....TA
Rick........$100,000......$1000....6K
Erica.......$100,000......$10000...8K
Dealer 4729

Dealer Deanna starts by paying the entire table, which rewards a big $10K bet by Erica.

Hand 2:
Tyrone......$102,000......$1000....QK
*Anthony....$103,000......$1000....34K
David.......$103,000......$5000....T6 Surr
Rick........$101,000......$1000....7A78
Erica.......$110,000......$5000....K8
Dealer K33Q

Another dealer bust. Max: "Erica's looking pretty good so far... and she's got some chips." We hear from Erica's pre-game interview that she plans to be pretty aggressive. It's working so far.

Hand 3:
Tyrone......$103,000......$1000....77: Split 78 / 76 / 74 Dbl A
Anthony.....$104,000......$1000....49
*David......$100,500......$7000....7A Dbl 9
Rick........$100,000......$1000....4A Dbl Q
Erica.......$115,000......$5000....84
Dealer 55K

David and Rick double, while Tyrone gets four bets working here. Deanna jumps right on that action and delivers some punishment, wiping out all 10 bets on the table. David's $14K is the worst casualty.

Hand 4:
Tyrone......$ 99,000......$1000....QQ
Anthony.....$103,000......$7000....AA Split A2 / AJ
David.......$ 86,500......$5000....27J
*Rick.......$ 98,000......$3000....A8
Erica.......$110,000......$2000....99 Split 9J / 943K
Dealer K7

Matt and Max talk about Anthony's early exit last year, when a few aggressive bets made him the first person eliminated in WSOB 2004. As Max points out, he's had a whole year of grief over that, but Anthony won't let that affect his game a bit. We get to see part of Anthony's pre-game interview: "I don't like the bet minimum strategy. A lot of the best players in the world like to play that way. I think it's a mistake. I think that's one of the things that separates me from them." On this hand, he challenges Erica's lead with a $7000 bet.

After Erica splits 9s against a King, Max wonders if she thinks she got something from Deanna about the hole card. I think that comment, and another one about David wondering the same thing when he pauses before hitting his total of 9 are complete made-for-TV bull. Erica's just playing a high-variance play, which is ill-advised here. As for David, I think he's just being deliberate about his choice. No mystery there.

Skip to Hand 7:
Tyrone......$100,000......$12000...6J
*Anthony....$110,000......$1000....97
David.......$ 88,500......$7000....5Q
Rick........$101,000......$1000....T5
Erica.......$115,000......$2000....48
Dealer 6QT

While we were away, we hear that Erica had a blackjack on hand 5, and Anthony won a $14,000 double on hand 6. The result puts us pretty much back to hand four in standings. Tyrone's pop-in tells us that he's not big on "that math stuff", and thinks the game is more about psychology. Max doesn't believe him. With a Deanna bust, Tyrone moves up to second place.


Hand 8:
Tyrone......$112,000......$7000....A294T
Anthony.....$111,000......$10000...T46
*David......$ 95,500......$1000....23249
Rick........$102,000......$1000....A2KK
Erica.......$117,000......$1000....275T
Dealer K8

The button has just passed Anthony, and Max points out the good timing for Anthony to shoot for the lead. His timing pays off, and he's the new leader going into hand 9.

Hand 9:
Tyrone......$105,000......$7000....8K
Anthony.....$121,000......$2000....755
David.......$ 96,500......$7000....J2
*Rick.......$101,000......$1000....72 Dbl ?
Erica.......$116,000......$5000....635
Dealer 3Q2J

Max points out a basic strategy play by Anthony who hits his 12, while David shuns the book and stands. Their results are identical though, when the dealer busts. Megan gives us a tour of the slots, and a quiz about which slot is the most popular at the Golden Nugget.

Hand 11:
*Tyrone.....$113,000......$8000....JT
Anthony.....$131,000......$2000....Q9
David.......$104,500......$12000...42J
Rick........$115,000......$10000...35A
Erica.......$125,000......$10000...5Q
Dealer 25349

Erica takes advantage of last position here to take the high, and she gets the lead.

Hand 12:
Tyrone......$121,000......$8000....Q39
*Anthony....$133,000......$1000....J35
David.......$116,500......$12000...52 Surr
Rick........$125,000......$1000....67AQ
Erica.......$135,000......$3000....9T
Dealer QJ

Dave says something about a tell after Deanna peeks, and then surrenders his seven. Perhaps he's right. She was pat with 20.

Hand 13:
Tyrone......$113,000......$16000...76
Anthony.....$132,000......$10000...4A Dbl 9
*David......$110,500......$15000...68
Rick........$124,000......$1000....47 Dbl 8
Erica.......$132,000......$5000....TQ
Dealer 5AQJ

A big hand, and a nice $20K win for Anthony to give him a solid lead.

Skip to Hand 16:
*Tyrone.....$148,000......$9000....T39
Anthony.....$154,000......$4000....848
David.......$116,500......$12000...J2K
Rick........$100,000......$50000...363Q
Erica.......$122,000......$20000...764
Dealer K8

While we were away, we're told that a couple of dealer busts helped Tyrone back into contention for the lead. What we aren't told is that Rick also made a significant move during the break, betting to take the lead on hand 15. He wasn't as fortunate, and he's now in fifth place.

Matt and Max point out that the players don't have the benefit of looking at a scoreboard, and instead must either count chips or calculate the bankrolls of their opponents. (The official scores were provided about every five hands or so, but the chip stacks were very difficult to count.)

Rick makes a max bet, intending to get back in contention in a hurry. Max is critical of Erica's middle of the road bet, although with 9 hands to go I don't think it's that bad. She can still double for the lead as well. Both the big bets hit the tray though, as Anthony's three-card 20 is the sole winner.

--continued in next post--
 
Show Recap part 2

Hand 17:
Tyrone......$139,000......$1000....QQ
*Anthony....$158,000......$5000....KA
David.......$104,500......$30000...4K
Rick........$ 50,000......$50000...K9
Erica.......$102,000......$5000....K3J
Dealer A9

All-in Rick gets a few heartstopping moments while Deanna checks for a blackjack, but she doesn't have it. David surrenders his 14vA, as Max tells us again that's not a basic strategy play. With strong hands around the table, it also is a dangerous play. Rick's 19 looks good until Deanna reveals a 9 in the hole. We have our first empty seat. Matt: "Well Max, Rick Swogger, gone after 17 hands. What did he do wrong?" Max: "He didn't do anything wrong. He had to make that play. He made the right bet twice and just played unlucky."

Anthony may be the only player less thrilled with a four-player game, because the final hand button will now be in front of him.

Hand 18:
Tyrone......$139,000......$9000....J2K
Anthony.....$165,500......$3000....TT
*David......$ 89,500......$19000...A7
Erica.......$ 97,000......$5000....8J
Dealer 25K

Max defends Erica's relatively small $5000 bet here, saying she can afford to wait for the button to pass her. I'm not sure I agree against this competition. But it's a debatable point either way. Max doesn't like David's bet, and there we agree. $19K is a lot of risk when your bank is under $90K, yet winning that amount, or even double that amount, doesn't accomplish any meaningful objectives here. Why not wait a hand, and fire up either a max bet or half your bank on the next hand?

Hand 19:
Tyrone......$130,000......$17000...842
Anthony.....$168,500......$10000...K8
David.......$108,500......$1000....KQ Surrender!
*Erica......$102,000......$13000...Q6
Dealer 2T5

I didn't care for Erica's bet last hand, but I absolutely hate this one. Again, it's too small to be meaningful, but big enough to be hazardous. Tyrone may not have been kidding when he talked about not being into the math, as his bet doesn't do much either. By the time the betting gets to David, he's probably not thrilled to see fairly substantial bets leading up to his spot. But he can still get a nice-sized swing with a max bet here. He opts for the minimum bet instead.

As for the play of the hand, well, you may have heard the rumors before, but here's the play. David surrenders his 20 against a dealer 2. In conversations after his round, David justified his play as being unusual enough to provoke conversation about him, which would hopefully lead to a return invitation in the future. The play really doesn't have any effect on his position, but it definitely looks foolish, and Max lets him have it: "That is the dumbest play in the history of tournament blackjack." Well, I'll admit it may be in the top three.

Anthony can't help but to snicker, and encourage Dave to keep doing that. Anthony's got a lot to smile about this hand, as Deanna again makes him the only winner.


Hand 20:
*Tyrone.....$113,000......$15000...5249
Anthony.....$178,500......$7000....8A
David.......$108,000......$30000...39
Erica.......$ 89,000......$10000...6Q
Dealer 49K

Maybe it was Rick Swogger's back-to-back $50K losses that put the kibosh on max bets at this table, but I'm sure Anthony is glad there are no max bets on the table when Deanna busts this hand. Everyone gains ground, but he still has a strong lead.

Hand 21:
Tyrone......$128,000......$18000...764
*Anthony....$185,500......$5000....6T Surrender
David.......$138,000......$24000...9J
Erica.......$ 99,000......$40000...8Q
Dealer J7

Anthony is on the button, and bets just enough to cover a max bet win by second-place Dave. Dave's $24K gives him a double to beat a push by Anthony, so it has some merit. If that's his plan, I'd cover a win by BR1 instead, and bet $27K. I like a max bet better than either though. Erica's bet is OK here, covering a push by Dave and making up ground on Anthony.

Anthony surrenders his 16, and then Dave is still talking about the "bad karma" he generated by surrendering that twenty a couple of hands back.

At the real table, here's where things went awry. Deanna paid Tyrone, even though he pushed. It was an error that wouldn't be discovered until hand 25. The official chip count during this event is NOT what's in front of the players, but is instead what's on the official scoreboard maintained by the crew. So, for the next four hands, Tyrone's chip stack is $18,000 more than it should be, and that creates some havoc.

Hand 22:
Tyrone......$128,000......$47000...6Q Surrender
Anthony.....$183,000......$20000...6K
*David......$162,000......$25000...58
Erica.......$139,000......$10000...T56
Dealer J8

Deanna peeks, and looking at the big bets around the table, she says "You're so lucky I don't have it." David then stays on his 13vT, causing Matt to ask "Is he taking that as another tell?" Max: "I think he's taking drugs." C'mon Legend, let us in on the secret. What the heck were you thinking, or, were you thinking at all?

Erica hits and draws a 6 for 21. Tyrone's surrender insures he'll need some great cards to recover. Anthony stands on 16vT, which in this case is a nice correlation play with Dave who stood stiff. A pat 18 for Deanna moves Erica into second place.

Hand 23:
Tyrone......$104,500......$50000...A54
Anthony.....$163,000......$10000...3Q
David.......$137,000......$30000...A3T
*Erica......$149,000......$5000....J9
Dealer 24829

The dealer error now starts affecting the decisions at the table. Rather than $104,500 in chips, Tyrone has $122,500 in front of him. After Tyrone made a max bet, Anthony bet $10K to cover his possible $172,500 by a $500 margin. I would have liked covering Dave's possible $187,000 instead, but maybe Anthony knows Dave better than me, because Dave doesn't take the offered high anyway. With the extra chips in Tyrone's stack, this $30K bet was THIRD high. And it was close to the same risk as a good bet of $37K. Legend, I don't think your ploy to be invited back is lookin' too good.

Tyrone had a shot for a double here, though it's not a pretty one. I like it anyway, because losing $100K wouldn't be that much worse than losing $50K (he's probably toast either way), while winning $100K is much more powerful than winning just $50K. David gets a chance to fix his ailing bet with a double as well, but he opts against too.


Hand 24:
*Tyrone.....$154,500......$25000...95
Anthony.....$173,000......$50000...TT
David.......$167,000......$50000...7J
Erica.......$154,000......$50000...79
Dealer 4A2

Anthony knows they'll all be gunning for him, and he knows he has the final hand button as well, so he fires up a max bet to build his ammo pile. Dave's options are now limited. He can't afford to take a low in this spot, so he does the best he can, and bets the max. In Erica's spot, I think I would have taken first low here. It requires a bet of less than $6000 to cover a surrender by Anthony. I'd push out $1000 and hope for a dealer blackjack, preferably with the ten up to eliminate insurance.

Tyrone fakes everybody out by counting up chips for a double down, then waving off at the last minute. When noone tries to improve their hand, Anthony is hoping for an in-between dealer total. He does pretty well when Deanna makes 17, pushing Dave and collecting big stacks from Erica and Tyrone.

At the real game, there's now a 20 minute delay, as the crew have finally discovered Tyrone's chip stack error and work out the details about how it will be remedied. Again, the rule for WSOB was that the chip stacks were not the official score. Errors by the dealer would be corrected whenever they were found. $18,000 in chips were removed from Tyrone's stack, and Anthony now knows why he was so puzzled earlier.

Don't miss Anthony's description of this round at his site, where he goes into detail about the impact of the error, and also of the 20 minute delay between the last two hands.

--continued in next post--
 
Show Recap part 3

Hand 25:
Tyrone......$129,500......$50000...37 Dbl 9
*Anthony....$223,000......$23000...84
David.......$167,000......$42000...2A Dbl 3
Erica.......$104,000......$50000...T5 Dbl 5
Dealer TQ

Anthony's tactic of accumulating ammo has worked very well. He has a $56K lead over second place. He explains his bet of $23,000 at his site, and says that once he pushed it into the circle, he hated the choice. It's amazing how extra time can make you second-guess what you should be betting here. His $23,000 does a lot, including locking out Erica with a surrender. It covers everyone's double-downs except David, and that can still be managed by an Anthony double. But, in the end, Anthony's right. A bigger bet would have been better here, to cover a double by David.

Anthony's playing decision is really tough. This is the kind of spot that would have me losing hair at the table. Three plays have merit: Standing, doubling, and surrendering. I don't know how I would have played this at the table. I think I would have doubled, but I'm just not sure. I'm trying to make up my mind in a reasonable time as if I were at the table, and I'm still struggling with the choice.

Standing: That avoids the possibility of Anthony busting followed by a dealer bust, which is the reasoning Anthony used to arrive at his play. He stood. However, I figure Dave's a definite double, which takes away the dealer bust.

Doubling: That takes away David's double for the high, gaining back the value of the dealer bust, and more if Anthony draws a good card.

Surrender: This has some of the same benefits as standing, plus it locks out Erica so she's not a threat. That seems to sound better than standing, until you start to consider that a dealer bust puts Anthony in third place. Of course, he can end up in either third or fourth place by standing, though it requires the others to draw well.

Hmm. I still don't know. I like the double. I hope someone with more time than me at the moment will take a good look at this one.

All the other three players double, and it's still anyone's game. When Deanna turns up a pat 20, neither first or second place is decided. Instead, all attention moves to the three double down cards which are revealed starting with Erica.

Erica drew a five for a push. That might be good enough for second place, if both Tyrone and David lose. David can still win this thing if he made 21. Nope, he drew a 3 for 16. Tyrone can win it with an Ace, or take second with a face card. He got a 9 instead, and finishes in fourth place.

Erica takes second, and Anthony is our winner. What a finish!
 
Playing decisions like this have to be made quickly; there's only so much time to process. The dealer 10 up was what I keyed on. If she's pat, I'm a powerhouse. But there's potential disaster if she's stiff. I reject surrender, because it allows two ways for me to come third: the dealer is stiff and busts, or Tyrone and David both draw well. I agree the double was close. But in the end, if it's that close, it probably doesn't matter much and you've got to make a choice. As I've said before, I look for tiebreakers in these situations and I had a couple here (one that was simply personal utility linked to my previous early exit). I felt double or stand was pick 'em, so I let my marginal tiebreakers decide.
 
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