What should my bet be?

M

mrbill

New Member
I actually have 2 questions. First I'll give the situation

17 of 20 hands complete. Max bet $300. I'm betting second $75 ahead of the player betting last.

What should I have bet? I realized after that I probably should've went with $230 to cover a $300 bet. I did go with $300. I don't remember what he ended up betting, but I know it was less than $200.

Now for the second question: I was dealt A - 9. Dealer had an A up. Should I have taken insurance? I'm thinking I should've because even if the dealer didn't have BJ, I would still have had the high if I win my hand. I didn't and of course the dealer did have BJ.

I still had a chance on hand 19 though. I was betting first and bet $150. I was dealt a 6 - 4. Dealer had a 4 up. I doubled and drew a 10. Dealer had a 6 down and drew an A for 21.
 
Here's my view:

In my opinion, the answer to your bet amount question depends on a few things. If the player $75 behind your chip count is your sole competition with these four hands to go, I'd be unwilling to bet more than my chip lead. I'd probably make of a bet of $65 here.

If instead at least one additional player is pretty close to your chip count, I like the larger bet. Your thought of betting $230 instead of your $300 is a good one. I'll point out one possible pitfall when you use this logic though:

Sometimes this reasoning can lead you astray, if your opponent might make a large bet and double down behind you. By betting $230, you can no longer double and cover his max bet double. But, in this case, I don't think that's an issue at all. Once you cover a single-bet high with a bet of $230, he or she is going to bet smaller than you, just like your opponent actually did. That makes the double-down issue disappear.

In the same situation, but with a crowd of contenders, your opponent is less likely to take a low this hand, and you're probably better off betting the $300 or at least $265 to cover a possible max-bet double.

The last important piece of information is where you'll be betting on the last hand. If I was going to be on the button on the last hand, I may prefer the larger bet, even if I only have the one opponent as a threat. That's a judgement call, and I'd likely make my decision using whatever information I know about my opponent's typical behavior to decide between $65 and $265 here. I see from the remainder of your post that you were indeed on the button. In that position, I think your $300 bet on hand 17 was reasonable.

Once the cards were dealt, and you held 20vA, I would have taken partial insurance. How much? A sharp opponent will insure behind you if you don't insure for enough, so you need to assume he can insure completely and therefore have a push. You can afford to lose $70 this hand, so I would insure for $115, which covers $230 of your $300 bet.

In the last four hands, your loss with two big bets on hands of 20 is pretty brutal. My condolences! :D
 
Actually bet last on last hand

Actually, I bet last on the last hand. But thanks to the 2 losses on the prior hands the only chance I had was all in and get a BJ if the leader did something stupid like bet 300 and split and lose both of them.

The other people at the table were all around 200-250 behind me. I probably didn't pay enough attention to them.

The weird thing is I've been in this tournament twice. They have 3 qualifying rounds at 6PM, 7PM and 8PM. Both times, I've been at 6 and the table was won by the same guy.

I understand your reasoning for betting less than the chip lead and will keep that in mind the next time. I went big to make him come after me. Our hands worked out because as I remember he had 15. If the dealer wouldn't of had BJ, I liked my chances on that hand.
 
Remember rule #1

Everything Ken said is right, but as a new player if your not sure what the correct bet should be your usally better off making a big bet.

Also another good rule of thumb for new player. If your last to bet don't worry about counting all the others chips, just what they have back. As long as you keep more back then them you'll have a shot at first low.

These are pretty basic rules and not alway the highest percentage plays. As you play more you'll fiqure out the best percentage bets and or plays for each situation.

Good luck
 
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