long but not the longest answer
Interesting case.
Let me analyze second part of the teaser.
(Player A- 2100 bets all, player B- 1530, player C- 2525, last hand, one winner. Best bet for player B?)
Player B needs to gain more than 570 to player A and more than 995 to player C.
There are three basic ranges of bets for player B:
1. Small bet.
Player A must lose and player C must bet “big” and lose, as well.
The key element here is whether player C is going to bet big.
Skillful player C will know that by betting small s/he locks out player B and hopes that player A doesn’t win, for a total chance of over 56%.
If player C bets big s/he can’t lose his/her hand (player B has the “low”) and can’t push if player A wins for a total chance of about 50%.
Slightly better play by player A locks out player B (
0% chances), but if player A chooses to bet big “our” player B has a hefty
30% chance of advancing (both players A and C lose their bets).
2. Medium bet of at least 665 and less than 680.
Player C is still better off by not giving low to player B, but now player B has a chance of advancing if s/he wins the hand and, at the same time, player A pushes or loses and player C loses. Additionally, if player B gets a blackjack or wins doubled bet, then it overcomes player’s C push.
Playing strategy would change from the basic, especially if cards were dealt face up.
It seems to me that chances for this play to succeed are roughly short of
9%.
3. Big bet of more than 995 (and as close to it as possible).
This bet increases chances for player C by generally giving him both hi and low but it forces him/her to bet more than 1675 to cover player’s A win.
Player C by betting more than 995 gives player B chance to advance not only when he is swinged (won-lost) but also when s/he loses and player B pushes, and also when player B wins and player C pushes. I would not be surprised if it all added up to a tad more than
10% chance.
By betting as close to 995, say even one thousand (one or two, nonchalantly thrown in chips), player B increases chances for having a “low” (all players lose) if player C bets anything more than 1995, say a convenient two thou.
If you, as player B, estimate that player C, regardless your small bet, is going to bet big more than 33% of times– bet small. Otherwise bet one thousand.
Good luck in your next tourney,
S. Yama
PS
It’s funny how effectiveness of many seemingly different strategies falls within 2%-3%.
PSS
I have some bj tournament posts on A. Snyder’s Blackjack Forum Online:
http://message.bjfonline.com/
