"Going Pro:" Is There Such A Thing? Opinions Wanted

Yes Mame!

Tx-

Let me get this straight. Not only are you allowed to change and/or decide the terms of this wager (While Joep is not), but now you're defining 'LUCK' and 'SKILL'? Somebody wake up Mr. Joep!!!!! Elyssez


When I am the one offering the bet I can deside the terms of the wager, if no one wants to play then it's no bet. I am willing to modifying it for this coming week (as I stated in my post) so Joep and me can a get bet between us, but it mainly will stay the same.

My defining luck and skill was just my opinion. Everybody has their own opinion, mine is everybody that enters a BJ tournament has a chance to win "Pro" or not!...LOL
 
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I suspect there is a law of diminishing returns with regard to the skill factor -

A complete novice would be at a severe disadvantage to anyone with some degree of experience (though they would still have a healthy chance of winning any given encounter, thanks purely to Lady Luck).

However, they would only be marginally worse off against a top player, many of whose wily skills might only prove useful in very particular (and relatively infrequent) scenarios.

Similarly, the top player versus an 'average' player would have an advantage, but only a small one.

I can't support the above assertions with any concrete evidence, but I notice that doesn't normally stop people around here. :D


One cautionary note, which may add some perspective to this debate ...

I had my biggest win on Global when I took first place in a Wednesday tournament and netted a cool (for me) $900. This must have been three or four weeks into my TBJ career. Here we are, about two years later, and I've made the final table on two or three more occasions, but never surpassed that early success, despite all I've learned since. (I've also given back the $900, and then some.) :sad:
 
Hoy-Boy--BET

The ingredients, parameters and processing of THIS BET are making it as complicated and dangerous as a rolling meth lab.

It'll have to be held under Marquis de Queensbury rules...no kicking, biting, scratching,unless ther's an itch. And when the clock strikes one, kicking and biting shall be allowed for exactly only one minute.

Now, I don't want to be or sound like a "broke-back, back slider," but my agreement with TX on "THE WINNER" of a BJ tournament, goes to his original proposition statement. As I recall, it was: "In any BJ tournament(not x number) he'll give you 50 pros and take the rest of the field for the winner."

Now obviously, if there are only 60 entrants and 50 are pros, its a stupid bet.

If everyone wants to structure the bet to their particular advantage, then it's not a bet. It's a prestructured advantage outcome for the better with the best skewed rules, overlooked by the loser.

ps: Gamemaster offers some new food for thought. As it applies to generally accepted criterian for "pro." The only way "all" are going to get a definable read on all this is by seeing who are the consistant winners/final table players under UBT point system, or TX's fledging "minor league" tourney's.

Otherwise, we'll still only have GSN to tell us who are the top pros in the country.
 
If you have skill and experience, you will make profit in a long run. I've playing tournament on a consistent basis for over a year now and there is never a month that I don't make a profit. I play BJT about 4 times a week and I notice that the people who make it to the final table are usually the same people and these people, in my opinion, are skilled players.
 
Typical?

... I've playing tournament on a consistent basis for over a year now and there is never a month that I don't make a profit. I play BJT about 4 times a week ...
But aren't you in a rather unique situation. From your prior posts, you mentioned that the weeklies (maybe more) you play in have a low turnout, entry fee is minimal and the casino kicks in some cash to make the tournaments positive equity. If my recollection of your prior posts is wrong, please correct as needed.

Now don't get me wrong. If you can make a profit every month, the more power to you. It's just that because your situation is so unique, your winnings cannot be looked upon as typical of a seasoned player.
 
darklord

Have you gone "Pro", is BJ your only income, probably not but if are making a profit every month why have'nt you quit your job and gone" pro"?
 
Why ?

Tx and Joep-
Tx, you know very well that Joep would never have agreed on the Stardust (for obvious reasons). And Joep, you too also know Tx will not agree to a UBT event.



Elyssez why is it that you believe Tex would not agree to using the UBT Tour as a barometer .This is actually the obvious choice as all players are allowed to play as opposed to the starBUST which has no where near 50 good players, in any of their events as they have all been shown the door.

Joep
 
London Colin and back up:

I suspect there is a law of diminishing returns with regard to the skill factor -

A complete novice would be at a severe disadvantage to anyone with some degree of experience (though they would still have a healthy chance of winning any given encounter, thanks purely to Lady Luck).

However, they would only be marginally worse off against a top player, many of whose wily skills might only prove useful in very particular (and relatively infrequent) scenarios.

Similarly, the top player versus an 'average' player would have an advantage, but only a small one.

I can't support the above assertions with any concrete evidence, but I notice that doesn't normally stop people around here. :D

I saw the face in your post. I get it. HOWmever For a lot of the "teasers" there are reams of statistical back up. For a lot of other assertions, yep, it's opinion. And speaking of opinion:

The only certainties are the probabilities. Nothing else is certain.

I've been in discussions as to what constitutes "BASIC STRATEGY."
Whose basic strategy;whose "BOOK;" whose "BIBLE;"

What was it before "Counting?" (BC) . What is it after "counting?"(AC). But then, whose "count?" Whose new count? Whose revised new count? Whose new strategy incorporated into one of those counts for a specifically run casino BJ game, that may only be offered for a month before it's cracked.

So instead of revisiting some older "Basic Strategy" within an older count method against casino offerings, all the knowledgeable AP's just wait for the casino that makes the mistake and opens itself to pickin by the "New" strategy.

Even the AP's can't agree, except on the probabilities. But hey even then, since we're doing all the math in base 10 against a 13 sequence, there just may be room for other interpertations. Likewise, over reliance on per centages and averages over infinity or in a too small sample cloud the issue.
Unless one takes the time to do the numbers oneself(a daunting task even with a computer) one is relying on others to have properly "set" the problem.

Observable. Defineable. Repeatable.

Numbers crunching fits the mandate. But what was once the law or acceptable, does not stay forever. Are all the people burning in hell for having eaten meat on Friday, now given a repreive, a pardon, or are they forgotten?

All the estemed, various scientific communities follow a herd mentality to aid the "publish or perish" peril. Yet, once every 50 years or so, someone breaks through with revolutionary thought which is really only THOUGHT.

But on the other side there is also regression, even using the scientific method, when one and sometimes more parameters are changed for whatever reason.

What was certain and agreed upon can be changed by a concensus of the "community," furthering uncertainty in the quest for the absolute certainty.

And if this is too muddled, or you don't believe it, I suggest you ask Pluto what it thinks.
 
Cow Tipper's Of America

Here is a statement a dear friend of mine and a well respected tournament player some might even call him a "PRO" . He told me one night over dinner as this topic "Luck vs. Skill" was being tossed around over a tossed salad.

" Anyone can win a blackjack tournament that's the luck factor, but over the long run a Skilled-Pro tournament player will win more than their share ,thats just the plain truth "

So luck happens in the short run and skill wins out hands down in the long run and that is proven history, and if you care to look at who the top players are.You will discover that the top "Pro" players accomplishments are head and shoulders above the average ploppie that decides to leave it all to luck.

So Tex take your 2/3 of the field and take them "Cow Tipping" now there is something they have a fair shot of winning at on a regular basis. They just need to locate the sleepy cows.
 
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StarBust has it right

If anyone wants to know what a "PRO" tournament players looks like you should all stop by the Starbust tonight and for that matter every tournament banquet as there is usually one, sometimes two tables of "Banned Pros' who have been invited to the banquet as guest of players in the tournament.Some of the players that are still allowed to play even have the nerve to sit with us. For the most part our table is avoided like the PLAGUE.

We usually take a picture of the table for laughs :laugh:

In a side note 80 % of the "Banned Players" are all Starbust Tournament winners. of 60,000 to 100,000. I guess you know where the Starbust opinion of Luck vs. Skill is .

They will take the 1/3 of the players in this bet


Joep
 
Research... and Banned Players?

I'm enjoying the continuing stream of info on this philosophical thread I started--THX all...

Having looked around specifically for info on this, I am starting to see-- on UBT and G-P sites-- evidence that the same folks are rising to final tables. Specifically, members of this site like Ken, Sidekick and you, JoeP, along with others like NicNRic, Scorcho, etc.

With fields commonly well over 50 at UBT.com tournaments, for example, the fact that the same names keep popping up on the final tables provides clear, hard evidence that skill is the major factor. Of course the fact that these same people are all hardcore TBJ junkies (i.e. entering many, many times--some appear not to sleep) clearly increases their odds as well. The "Ploppy Factor" or, on UBT clearly, the "Poker Ploppy Factor" (my personal favorite form of Ploppy) also plays a role here.

Anyway, I am also curious--JoeP--when you write that the "Starbust" has barred players. I assume that these players were barred for AP activity discovered by the store in other non tournament-related play? (i.e. their "other activities" have made them unwelcome for any casino action?) No casino bars players based on their play in tournaments, or do they?

Good Cards--Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)
 
No Joke

:joker: The SatrBUST :joker: has barred players just on their tournament play ONLY. Sad but TRUE


Joep
 
ramblings.......

sabrejack said:
Hi All: First time poster, student of the tournament game and have enjoyed the wisdom posted on this board. (Thanks Ken Smith and all regular posters for the great resource you provide...) As for me, let's say I currently play more rounds of casino blackjack than in tournaments but that could change.
Why would you want to mess with success? Just my curious observation.

sabrejack said:
Thus my questions, which are aimed especially at those who may be making money at this, whether it be FT or (decent) PT income:

Q1: How much of a player's tournament success would you say comes down to luck and how much to skill? Is it 50/50? 80/20? 99/1? Can skill really make tournament play winnable on a consistent basis?

Q2: With the new opportunities (WSOB, UBT, etc.) and growing popularity, are there real consistent income possibilities for a serious player?

Q3: Is it wise to play as many tournaments as possible to improve skills and to improve chances for wins? i.e. Do more entry fees translate to more wins?

Thanks for any and all comments. Good Cards--Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)

Isn’t it amazing how some threads get so many people riled up? Since I’ve seen definitions for luck versus skill I’d like to get some other definitions out of the way – what is a professional BJ player?
wikipedia said:

A professional provides a service in exchange for payment in accordance with established protocols for licensing, ethics, procedures, standards of service and training/certification. A professional is a member of a licensing body which is legally established within the laws of a given state, county, province or nation.
The term "professional" is widely used to refer to individuals with recognized expertise within a field of endeavor even though they are not a member of a licensing body or legal entity. The distinction between professional sports and amateur sports simply refers to how the athlete is funded. Similarly the distinction within creative pursuits between professional and amateur becomes somewhat grey.
Historically, behaving professionally would indicate that the person's actions remain in accordance with specific rules, written or unwritten, pertaining to behavior, dress, speech, etc. By extension, the adjective professional identified somebody recognized for expertise or skill in a craft or activity.
In narrow usage, not all expertise is considered a profession. Although sometimes referred to as professions, such occupations as skilled construction work are more generally thought of as trades or crafts. The completion of an apprenticeship is generally associated with skilled labor or trades such as carpenter, electrician, plumber, and other similar occupations.
In cases lacking a licensing body, the opposite of a professional is an amateur or, disparagingly, "rank amateur." Sometimes an amateur can perform as well or better than a professional. Therefore, in many fields a person must overcome a barrier before gaining recognition as a professional. Such barriers include academic degrees, certification, or licenses. Professions with such barriers include those of accountancy, architecture, medicine, engineering, intelligence, law, clergy and teaching. In the strictest sense, a profession is created by legislation and is self-regulating, e.g. through a Code of ethics.


Hmmmm…. Seems that some aspects apply but others – specific rules, apprenticeship, certificates &/or code of ethics are hazy at best. Sabrejack, I am a novice to TBJ and around there parts I’m one of the new kids on the block.

You are right to notice that some people consistently wind up at those final tables and others only occasionally. The difference? Luck….Skill…..a combination of both maybe. As for me I’ll take the skill factor over the luck part myself.

However there are other factors like persistence, dedication, patience and yes Wisdom. Not only KNOWING what to do but WHEN to do it. Now back to your original question, can you make a living at TBJ? My .02 on the subject is this – probably not. WHY?

The overhead and limited availability of BJ tourneys is the limiting factor. Can you make a living just playing BJ? Depends on who you ask and what your lifestyle is. There is an old adage that I learned a long time ago that, while not politically correct, I have found to be very true: Those that can do – do. Those who can’t do – teach. Those who can’t teach – administrate. [For a little humor you add those who can’t administrate – work for the government!]

Most of the “professional” (by that I mean people who make over 50% of their income via blackjack/poker/gambling) fly low, under the radar. Why bring on the heat? If I was the world’s best BJ tourney player (in my dreams and not even close) why should I tell everyone my system and get kicked from the top of the hill? It’s only human nature to keep those hidden talents/secrets closed – only to be passed to the next generation for posterity (i.e., apprentice)

Having said that I truly believe that some of the people that are in the “professional” category have found a “calling” here and out of their love for the “profession” give out tips/help/advice, etc. as a means of giving back from what they’ve received. I personally find that very noble and I am very thankful for that.
Tourney BJ is fun, stimulating and exciting. I hope that UBT blows it up and millions of people jump on the bandwagon. Personally I’ll now get off my soapbox and stick with the adage: Those that can do…….
 
New research to add...

OK, so it's a small sample size, and variance could certainly be playing a role here... but I now have generated some hard data based on my own experiences that adds to answers above re the Skill vs. Luck question.

The Executive Summary? SKILL shapes up as playing the predominant role.

My data? Over the last two weeks, I've played in 15 scheduled tournaments at UB.com. Of those 15, I have reached a final table (i.e. the money) 6 times, or 40%. If I subtract the freeroll tourney it took me to get used to the elimination format, that's 6 of 14 for a 43% FT rate. I'd say fields ranged from 30-70.

Clearly some freewheeling poker ploppies were in there to help anyone with a modicum of talent, but lots of others I see with good track records have been there as well. Heck, me and some Blackjack compadres even "defeated" Annie Duke one night (pretty sure it was, in fact, the real Annie). Thought we'd all get free trips to Aruba off that or something, but no...

This could still be a streak, clearly. I'll be interested to look at my "performance" over 50, 100 or more such tourneys and see. I feel pretty sure my FT% will fall, but for now, based on the thoughts offered on this thread and my own sliver of experience, I feel that work on developing one's game clearly pays off.

I've enjoyed playing many from this site I see appearing around me at UB.com. Now if I could just figure out everyone from this site's UB handle--many I know but many I don't!

Good cards--Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)
 
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Final Words

In this never ending Saga between Tex and I will end it with this quote that a well known and respected tournament player sent me . This speaks volumes for this debate. I thank him for allowing me to use it.......

"Luck happens when
an opportunity meets the well prepared"



Joep
 
Skill vs. Luck

In this never ending Saga between Tex and I will end it with this quote that a well known and respected tournament player sent me . This speaks volumes for this debate. I thank him for allowing me to use it......."Luck happens when an opportunity meets the well prepared"
Joep

Yep I agree, there is also another saying.....

"Even a blind squirrel finds an accorn once in a while",

both saying seem to agree LUCK is involved in both if your skilled or not.
 
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How about this quote?

True luck consists not in holding the best of the cards at the table;
luckiest is he who knows just when to rise and go home.

John Hay, Distichs, latter 19th century
US author & politician (1838 - 1905)
 
True luck consists not in holding the best of the cards at the table;
luckiest is he who knows just when to rise and go home.

John Hay, Distichs, latter 19th century
US author & politician (1838 - 1905)


"Know when to hold them, know when to fold them"

Kenny Rogers, US country music singer
 
Here is a poll of what currently 797 Blackjack Tournament Players feel about this subject


Which of the following factors most in winning Elimination Blackjack?
TOTAL VOTES: 797

67 % Skill
22 % Luck
5 % Bluffing
6 % Chip counting

Looks pretty convincing what the majority thinks

Joep
 
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