Let Me Return The Favor, Sensai
Wow, Joe, your math skills are incredibly OFF. Sorry i took so long to respond, but I was too busy backing up huge MACK TRUCKS into the holes in your logic! I guess I'm not really surprised, after all, you're not the one who advanced out of the round, and I did.
Joep said:
As far as woulda, coulda,shoulda.You woulda had a lot more than just 2nd low if you bet was different.
Umm... earth to Joe... I did have 1st low, with the surrender option. Check the math: I am BR 1, and BR2 (that's you, babe) overbets his lead over BR3, making the 12,250 difference between me & BR3 (Kevin) the new 1st low. I bet 24,000, leaving the door open for a surrender into -- could it be? yes, it is! -- first low, beating a Kevin push by 250 dollars. If it LOOKS like 1st low, and SMELLS like 1st low, it must be -- 1st low! I know its hard for you to see the complexities of certain bets, what with that sneaky surrender trap & all, since you weren't at the final table of the World Series LAST YEAR like I was when MIT Mike tried to trick me in the same fashion, so I can understand. Now you know what a surrender trap is & how not to fall for it!
Joep said:
And you coulda doubled your 13 if you were going to take a hit and not Surrender.Because doubling gives you a chance to win since one of my hands were stiff and you give up nothing by doubling
AND ALSO GAINING NOTHING:
Here, i'll hold your hand on this one, Joe, since you seem to be having trouble with simple arithmetic again: you're right, one of your hands was stiff, for a possible loss of 46,500. But the other hand that you doubled for less puts a total of 50,750 on that square as well, for a possible total win for you of 101,500 if you win the double hand only, and 194,500 if you win both. You following me here? now, i have 100,250 and bet 24,000 of it -- even if i double, i can only win a total of 148,250 -- a far cry from 194,500. But if i only win a single bet, while you lose the stiff hand (but win the doubled hand), i make 124,250 to your 101,500 -- clearing you by a wide margin. And of course, if you win NEITHER hand, it really doesn't matter what I do since you'll be at ZERO. So in no possible scenario does doubling my hand come into consideration in any way, given the circumstances. Sorry to burst your bubble like that, you'll have to come up with yet another flawed criticism of my play. Oh, wait -- here's one now:
Joep said:
When you decided to take a hit on your 13 vs 3 you were a 69.2% underdog touching that hand.If you need me to break it down to the bare bones i will. If you hit your hand the 9-10-J-Q-K break you the A-2-3-4 do nothing for your hand so 9 cards out of 13 do squat for you.9 out of 13 = 69.2%.
Actually, sweetheart, let ME break it down for YOU. I have two options with my bet: surrender for 1st low, or double to beat your SINGLE bet win. Once you decided to split/double, me doubling as well becomes moot, as we've just discussed (above). So lets analyze the other option, the surrender play, to see if its a better option than hitting: Sure, it would give me first low, but if Kevin wins his hand while I surrender, I lose the low. What are the odds of Kevin winning? Well, with a 3 the dealer will bust 37%. Of the 63% remaining outcomes, i need the dealer to hit to exactly a 19, 20, or 21 for surrender to be a viable option. That's 60% of the original 63%, or a grand total of 37% chance of me advancing AT ALL, and that's not even a guarentee of first -- your doubled hand could be a 20 while the dealer hits to 19, and i still take 2nd. So surrendering is at best a 1/3 prospect of me advancing.
Now you say i'm also roughly a 3-to-1 dog on hitting (your magical '69.2%' mumbo jumbo number). Not true. Sure, I'm 3-to-1 on HITTING TO A GOOD TOTAL -- but not 3-to-1 on advancing, as I would be by surrendering. You're forgetting that, while in the surrender scenario, once I surrender -- the results are immediate. But by hitting, the different totals I hit to all have different weights. Pulling a 9,10,J,Q,K all bust me -- 5/13 of the cards, or 38%. You discredit the A,2,3,4 as "doing nothing for my hand" -- actually, you're wrong. They do nothing for advancing in 1st -- but they still allow me to advance in 2nd the majority of the time, since I DON'T BUST by pulling them like I would with the higher cards.
So i ask you -- why the hell would i take a 3-to-1 shot by SURRENDERING, and then still have to cross my fingers and hope I make 1st -- when i can HIT and over 60% of the time I will be a favorite to advance, period. There's nothing to discuss. My hit was the best play: i pull a 5, 6, 7, or 8 and I have the best shot at first. i pull a 1,2,3,4 (like I did), and I still have the best shot at 2nd.
The only other option left to be explored is whether or not i should've hit AGAIN, to force a better hand -- and especially since pulling a 2 gave me only the best shot at 2nd, and none at first (man, i woulda loved to pull a 7 or 8 instead of that 2!). At this point, the math changes substantially. Now instead of having the majority option of advancing @ all, i am presented with the fact that ~50% of the cards will bust me, and the big picture: without seeing your double down card, i don't even know what total i am trying to beat. Whereas the 1st hit gave me the best odds of advancing, now the second hit has me at a much greater chance of finishing in 3rd, and all without even knowing what i am taking the risk for (not seeing your double card). So i went with my original plan of taking the one hit, and leaving the door open for having the best shot of advancing at all. If i had pulled an ace instead of a 2, i may have reconsidered. But i realized that, even with the 2, the odds were now no longer in my favor of advancing by taking a 2nd hit -- so i stood.
Joep said:
If you did advance to the semis congrats,if you didn't you advanced just as far as i did.
Dude, you really are smoking the crack. Whether or not I make it to the semis is irrelevant, I ALREADY BEAT YOU. I don't know where you read "ADVANCING to the wild card round is the same as CRAPPING OUT in the qualifying round" -- no one believes that except you. I advanced, you didn't. That's why they call it ADVANCING -- because you qualify to move on to the next level. You seriously sound like an insane person -- next you'll be telling me the sky isn't blue and that the Stardust is inviting us both to a tournament. LOCO, man!
Take a chill pill already. You're starting to embarrass yourself. You know i can go all night, and I wouldn't want you to burst a blood vessel or anything trying to keep up... So when I need some more "lessons" from a guy who can't do simple mathematical analysis & thinks that even though he lost to me, he really didn't -- as well as someone who keeps insisting that i've "never come in first" even though I can only assure you I have & what you really mean is that i didn't come in first in one very SPECIFIC tourney, last year's World Series (that you weren't even invited to, I might add), i'll let you know!
I'll be here all week, bitches...
-holly d.